我国台风路径业务预报误差及成因分析  

Analyses in Errors and Their Causes of Chinese Typhoon Track Operational Forecasts

作　　者：余锦华[1] 唐家翔[1] 戴雨涵[1] 虞本颖[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学省部共建教育部重点实验室、大气科学学院,南京210044

出　　处：《气象》2012年第6期695-700,共6页Meteorological Monthly

基　　金：“973”课题(2009CB421503);国家自然科学基金(40775060);公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY200806009)共同资助

摘　　要：利用2005 2009年中国气象局(CMA)提供的西北太平洋(包括南海)台风路径业务预报资料,比较了各类型台风路径、台风登陆位置及登陆时间的预报误差,登陆台风不同阶段以及华东登陆和华南登陆台风的路径预报误差。结果表明:CMA在2005 2009年的路径预报水平与1999 2003年的相比有了显著提高。平均南海台风预报误差大于西北太平洋。异常路径台风主要出现于南海,三个预报时效(24、48和72 h)异常路径的预报误差平均都小于正常路径。将登陆台风分为远海、登陆期间和登陆后三个阶段,显示登陆期间台风预报误差最大,同一阶段华南登陆台风的预报误差大于华东登陆台风。台风登陆位置在24、48和72 h预报时效的平均预报误差分别为71.1、122.6和210.6 km,48和72 h台风实际登陆时间有70%早于预报时间,平均分别提早8和12 h。比较大尺度引导气流与台风移动的偏差及24 h路径预报误差,得到南海三种典型登陆台风路径的大尺度引导气流与台风移动的偏差及其与路径预报误差的关系不一样,即误差成因不同。南海倒抛物线型的大尺度引导气流与台风移动的偏差最大,其预报误差最小;西一西北型的大尺度引导气流与台风移动的偏差最小,其预报误差最大,可能与大尺度环流预报准确性差有关。登陆华东的预报误差小于登陆华南台风的预报误差,这与台风登陆华南时其大尺度引导气流和台风移动的偏差大于登陆华东的台风有关。Abstract： Forecast errors for different typhoon types, typhoon landfall position and time, typhoon locating in different position from coastline, typhoon landfall in East China and South China are issued based on ty- phoon track operational forecast data and best-track data in the western North Pacific （the South China Sea is included） provided by China Meteorological Administration （CMA） from 2005 to 2009. The results show that typhoon track forecast during 2005--2009 is more skillful than from 1999 to 2003. Average ty- phoon forecast bias in the South China Sea （SCS） is larger than in western North Pacific （WNP）. Unusual typhoon track mainly occurred in the SCS and their forecast errors are smaller than usual typhoon tracks for 24 h, 48 h and 72 h forecast periods. The forecast error is the largest during typhoon approaching coastline period among typhoon far away from coastline, approaching coastline and landfall later periods and it is larger for typhoon landfall in South China than in East China during same period. The average forecast errors are 71.1 km, 122.6 km and 210.6 km of typhoon landfall position for 24 h, 48 h and 72 h forecast periods, respectively. Timing errors of 70~ landfall typhoons demonstrate an early bias of 8 h and 12 h against forecast landfall for 48 h and 72 h forecast periods. Compared with large-scale steering flow to typhoon movement and 24 h forecast errors, the results also show that there are different bias betweenlarge-scale steering flow and typhoon movement among three typical landfall typhoon tracks and relation- ships between these biases and 24 h typhoon forecast track errors. Parabolic typhoon movements in the SCS have the largest bias between the steering flow and typhoon movement, but have the smallest forecast errors~ the largest forecast error for west to northwestward moving typhoon is not corresponding to its smaller bias between steering flow and typhoon movement, which may be related to low skillful forecast of large-scale circulation. The forecas

关 键 词：台风路径 业务预报误差 大尺度引导气流 

分 类 号：P457.8[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]