WRF3.1微物理参数化方案对两例暴雨的集合预报试验及可预报性分析  

Ensemble simulation and predictability analysis on rainstorms via WRFV3.1 with different microphysical parameterization schemes

作　　者：陈茂钦[1,2] 徐海明[1,3] 刘蕾[1,3] 丁治英[1,3] 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学大气科学学院 [2]解放军95337部队 [3]南京信息工程大学气象灾害省部共建教育部重点实验室

出　　处：《气象科学》2012年第3期237-245,共9页Journal of the Meteorological Sciences

基　　金：江苏省"六大人才高峰"培养对象(07-A-012);国家自然科学基金资助项目(40975037)

摘　　要：采用WRFV3.1.1数值模式,选取模式中的10个微物理过程参数化方案构造10个集合预报成员,分别对2008年6月9—10日江淮地区暴雨与2008年6月6—7日华南地区暴雨进行集合预报试验,并进一步讨论了这两例暴雨的可预报性差异。结果表明:各参数化方案在暴雨的模拟中所表现出来的优势是相对的,但微物理过程集合预报在两例暴雨中都取得稳定且优异的模拟效果;通过比较两例暴雨的ETS(Equitable threat score)评分距平发现,华南暴雨在各个量级上的ETS评分距平都大于江淮暴雨,且华南暴雨集合成员之间的ETS评分差别也较大;大多数集合成员的模式误差在初始12 h增长最快,其后将减慢或者降低。对各成员的均方根误差(σ)距平分析表明,华南暴雨的σ距平增长相对较快且成员之间差别较大。因此从模式误差增长的角度来说,华南暴雨的可预报性低于江淮暴雨。In order to study the effect of different microphysical parameterization schemes in WRF model on rainstorms simulation and their predictability, 10 ensemble members were constructed by choo- sing different microphysical parameterization schemes from WRFV3.1.1 and two experiments of ensemble forecast were conducted for two precipitation cases, the case from 9-10 June of 2008 in the area of Yan- gtze-Huaihe River and the other one from 6-7 June of 2008 in south China. Results show that, as regards the rainstorm simulation, the descriptive ability of the different microphysical parameterization schemes was different and the ensemble forecast achieved success in simulation of the two cases. The error of mod- el became large in the first 12 h and then it slowed down or reduced for most of ensemble members. Bycomparing ETS and RMSE of two cases, it is found that both the parameters in the case occurred in south China became higher than that in Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin during different rain intensity, and that the differences between the parameters obtained from different ensemble members became more distinct in the south China case than that in Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin case. In a word, the predictability of model on rainstorms simulation in south China is worse than that in the area of Yangtze-Huaihe River in view of model＇s error growth.

关 键 词：暴雨 物理过程参数化 集合预报 可预报性 

分 类 号：P456.7[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]