The Coupled Model Predictability of the Western North Pacific Summer Monsoon with Different Leading Times  

作　　者：LU Ri-Yu LI Chao-Fan Se-Hwan YANG Buwen DONG 

机构地区：[1]State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modelling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences [2]National Centre for Atmospheric Science-Climate, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom

出　　处：《Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters》2012年第3期219-224,共6页大气和海洋科学快报（英文版）

基　　金：supported by the Special Scientific Research Project for Public Interest (Grant No.GYHY201006021);supported by the U.K. National Centre for Atmospheric Science-Climate (NCAS-Climate) at the University of Reading

摘　　要：Leading time length is an important issue for modeling seasonal forecasts. In this study, a comparison of the interannual predictability of the Western North Pacific (WNP) summer monsoon between different leading months was performed by using one-, four-, and sevenmonth lead retrospective forecasts (hindcasts) of four coupled models from Ensembles-Based Predictions of Climate Changes and Their Impacts (ENSEMBLES) for the period of 1960 2005. It is found that the WNP summer anomalies, including lower-tropospheric circulation and precipitation anomalies, can be well predicted for all these leading months. The accuracy of the four-month lead prediction is only slightly weaker than that of the one-month lead prediction, although the skill decreases with the increase of leading months.Leading time length is an important issue for modeling seasonal forecasts. In this study, a comparison of the interannual predictability of the Western North Pacific （WNP） summer monsoon between different leading months was performed by using one-, four-, and sevenmonth lead retrospective forecasts （hindcasts） of four coupled models from Ensembles-Based Predictions of Climate Changes and Their Impacts （ENSEMBLES） for the period of 1960 2005. It is found that the WNP summer anomalies, including lower-tropospheric circulation and precipitation anomalies, can be well predicted for all these leading months. The accuracy of the four-month lead prediction is only slightly weaker than that of the one-month lead prediction, although the skill decreases with the increase of leading months.

关 键 词：seasonal forecast leading month Western North Pacific coupled models ENSEMBLES 

分 类 号：P444[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] TQ541[化学工程—煤化学工程]