基于协整理论的经济增长与生态环境变化关系分析——以重庆市渝东南地区为例  

Co-integration theory-based analysis on relationships between economic growth and eco-environmental changes: taking the southeast district in Chongqing city as an example

作　　者：肖强[1,2] 胡聃[2] 肖洋[2] 李勇志[2] 谭宏[1] 黄勇 

机构地区：[1]重庆文理学院非物质文化遗产研究中心,重庆400012 [2]中国科学院生态环境研究中心城市与区域生态国家重点实验室,北京100085 [3]国家环保部环境工程评估中心,北京100012

出　　处：《生态学报》2012年第11期3577-3585,共9页Acta Ecologica Sinica

基　　金：国家973项目(2009CB421105);国家科技支撑计划课题(2007BAC28B04);国家自然科学基金项目(70873121)

摘　　要：许多研究文献忽略了经济增长和生态环境质量的双向作用机制,从而导致了变量之间的内生性偏差。与以往研究相比,主要在以下几方面进行分析:1)采用脉冲响应函数来分别考察生态环境与经济增长这两类变量之间的动态冲击反应。2)运用预测方差分解技术来考察经济增长与生态环境变化在解释因素变动时的相对重要性。结论:经济增长与生态环境之间存在长期的均衡关系,非平稳序列的经济增长指标、生态环境因子经过一阶差分后变得平稳,均为一阶单整,存在协整统计关系。从长期来看,人均GDP与废气排放量、固废排放量呈现负相关,而与矿产开采总量、化肥使用强度呈现正相关。其高度正相关性实证了该地区主要靠资源开发拉动经济增长。脉冲响应分析表明,快速经济增长是影响生态环境质量的重要原因,生态环境质量变化对经济增长存在着反作用力。就响应效果而言,生态环境对经济增长的负向响应表明生态环境退化将导致人们对生态环境质量需求偏好的改变,从而对经济增长进程的变化产生外在压力,但生态环境对经济增长的反馈效应具有滞后性。Ecological environmental changes play critical roles in economic development,but environment conservation and economic growth always assumes the two-direcrtional interactions between them.When many countries and regions achieved high-speed economic growth,these activities also led to over-exploration and consumption of ecological resources that further caused serious environmental pollution and ecological damage.Based the related research literatures,the e influencing mechanisms of eco-environmental changes on economic growth can be concluded into 3 catagories,but most of the literatures ignored the two-way influencing mechanism between economic growth and ecological environmental changes because the feedback response of ecological environmental changes on economic growth was ignored,which led to a statistically variable deviation because economic growth itself is endogenous variable together determined by environmental change and other factors. Based on the time-series data between 1980—2009,this research conducted a dynamic quantitative analysis on economic development and environmental changes by using co-integration test and variance decomposition model,Compared with the previous studies,this research has mainly the following characteristics： 1）the long-term dynamic impulse response analysis between eco-environmental changes and economic growth using impulse response function method;2） predictive variance decomposition method is used to further investigate the relative importance level of economic growth and environmental changes in explaining the changes in economic and environmental factors. We have some conclusions as follows： There exists a long-term equilibrium relationship between economic growth and environmental changes.The non-stationary indicators of economic growth and eco-environmental factors becomes stationary treated by a first-order difference technique and have statistically co-integration relations between them.Co-nintegration test showed that per capita GDP,gas discharge,solid was

关 键 词：协整分析 经济增长 生态环境变化 渝东南地区 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济] F205F224