国内外通货膨胀对中国宏观经济的影响——基于结构化向量自回归模型的经验研究  

The Impacts of Domestic and International Inflation on China's Macro-Economy:An Empirical Study Based on SVAR Model

作　　者：刘淳[1] 王宝林 金洪飞[3] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学经济管理学院,北京100084 [2]国家发改委国民经济综合司,北京100824 [3]上海财经大学金融学院,上海200433

出　　处：《当代财经》2012年第6期52-60,共9页Contemporary Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家社科基金项目(09BJY003);上海市教委科研创新重点项目(10zs51)

摘　　要：通过将中国主要宏观经济变量、金融市场变量、国际通货膨胀和美国货币政策变量纳入到一个完整的系统中,采用结构化向量自回归模型,分析通货膨胀对中国经济的影响后得知:国际和国内的通货膨胀对中国实体经济和金融市场都有着重要的影响,并会促使货币当局采取紧缩性的货币政策。另外,中国经济和金融系统对通货膨胀的反应存在一定的时滞,国际因素对中国经济的影响随时间逐渐增强。因此,在政策制定方面需要加强对国际通货膨胀的应对,必要时需要以国际通货膨胀为政策制定的依据。By employing an SVAR model which incorporates such variables as China＇s principal macro-economy, financial market, international inflation and US monetary policy into a complete sys tem, this paper conducts an analysis of the impacts of domestic and international inflation on China＇s macro-economy. The results show that both international and domestic inflations have important effect on China＇s real economy and the financial markets, which will also spur the monetary authority to adopt tight monetary policies. In addition, China＇s real economy and financial market have some time-lag in responding to such inflations; the impact of the international factors on China＇s economy is becoming greater as time passes by. Therefore, when formulating policies, we should strengthen our responses towards the international inflations; the international inflations should be taken as the basis of policy formulation, if necessary.

关 键 词：通货膨胀 SVAR模型 宏观经济 

分 类 号：F822.5[经济管理—财政学]