基于负二项预测模型的山区双车道公路穿村镇路段的安全特性  

Safety Characteristics of Two-lane Highway Sections Passing through Towns/villages in Mountainous Area Based on Negative Binomial Prediction Model

作　　者：张铁军[1] 唐琤琤[1] 康云霞 

机构地区：[1]交通运输部公路科学研究院,北京100088 [2]北京路政局门头沟路政分局,北京102300

出　　处：《公路交通科技》2012年第6期110-115,132,共7页Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划项目(2009BAG13A02)

摘　　要：针对我国交通事故呈现出的在公路穿村镇路段聚集的趋势,在某山岭地形区域进行了双车道公路的交通事故、交通组成、道路和路侧等因素的大量数据采集,并对公路穿村镇路段的整体安全特性进行了分析,采用负二项模型等事故预测模型和相关检验理论对模型形式,以及公路穿村镇路段全部事故和追尾、碰撞、路侧等不同形态的事故规律特性进行了深入分析。研究结果发现,公路穿村镇路段的事故时空分布呈一定规律性;交通量、混杂率和道路横坡度为影响公路穿村镇路段交通安全的3个显著因素,且均呈正向影响。Aimed at the aggregating trend of traffic accidents in highway sections passing through towns/ villages in China, a large number of two-lane highway safety data, such as traffic accident, traffic composition, highway and roadside factors were collected in a mountainous area. Moreover, the overall safety characteristics of town/village accidents were analyzed, and the accident prediction model such as negative binomial prediction model and relative test methods were used to deeply analyze the model form and the regularities of total accidents, collision, rear-ended crash, roadside accident, etc. It is found that （ 1 ） the accidents in road sections passing through towns/villages are in the regular temporal and special distribution; （2） truck proportion, traffic volume and cross slope are the significant factors influencing traffic safety of road sections passing through towns/villages, and all of them are positive in such sections.

关 键 词：交通工程 双车道公路 事故预测模型 事故减少因子 穿村镇路段 

分 类 号：U491.122[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]