基于DEMATEL方法的海运行为形成因子影响关系分析  

Dependency Analysis of Marine Performance Shaping Factor Based on DEMATEL Method

作　　者：席永涛[1] 陈伟炯[1,2] 张晓东[1,3] 张善杰[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]上海海事大学商船学院 [2]上海海事大学图书馆,上海201306 [3]上海海事局法规处,上海200086

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2012年第4期14-19,共6页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：上海市教委创新科研项目(09YZ252)

摘　　要：为揭示并量化海运人因可靠性分析(HRA)中行为形成因子(PSF)间复杂的影响关系,采用DEMATEL方法对航海人员值班任务中9个PSF的依赖关系进行建模和分析,并验证该方法的有效性。结果表明:船上组织的完善程度、驾驶台班组成员的合作质量、可用时间等PSF在系统中的作用大;船上组织的完善程度、人机界面(MMI)与运行支持的完善性、值班区间以及培训和准备的充分性4个PSF为原因因素,驾驶台班组成员的合作质量、同时出现的目标任务数量、可用时间、船上工作及船舶航行条件和操作规程/计划的可用性5个PSF为结果因素。安全管理人员应针对作用大或原因因素中的PSF制定安全管理措施,改善情景环境,提高人因可靠性。For the sake of revealing and quantizing the dependency among the PSFs in marine HRA,a novel approach using a DEMATEL method was adapted to build a mathematical model for and analyze the complex relationship among nine PSFs in officers＇ duty work onboard ship.The model was validated.It shows that adequacy of organization on-board ship,crew collaboration quality,available time etc play a relatively important rule in the system.Four PSFs including adequacy of organization on-board ship,adequacy of MMI（man-machine interface） and operational support,time of day and adequacy of training and experience belong to cause group;Five PSFs including crew collaboration quality,number of simultaneous goals,available time,working conditions and sailing environment and availability of procedures/plans belong to effect group.Safety managers should take safety management measures for improving context and increasing human reliability in terms of the PSFs of great importance or belonging to cause group.

关 键 词：海运 人因可靠性分析(HRA) 行为形成因子(PSF) 决策试验和评估实验室(DEMATEL) 影响关系分析 

分 类 号：X912.9[环境科学与工程—安全科学]