基于成本收益分析的油气管道风险控制决策过程  

Risk Control Decision-making Process of Oil and Gas Pipelines Based on Cost-Benefit Analysis

作　　者：刘旭峰[1] 李静[1] 刘茂[1] 

机构地区：[1]南开大学城市公共安全研究中心,天津300071

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2012年第4期144-150,共7页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目资助(70833003)

摘　　要：为实现对油气管道风险的有效控制,结合油气管道的特点,基于成本收益分析方法改进风险控制决策过程。首先,确定风险控制目标,对所建议的措施进行初步筛选,并根据行业现状确定基线场景;之后,量化筛选后的措施的成本与收益,通过计算成本收益率(CBR)或规避事故隐含成本(ICAF)来确定相应措施的合理性;最后,依据上述分析制定风险控制决策。结果表明:不同措施的CBR或ICAF值不同,CBR或ICAF值较低的措施应被优先实施;而当CBR或ICAF值超过标准值时,相应措施是不合理的,应不予以实施。In order to control the risk from oil and gas pipelines effectively,decision-making process of risk control was improved,based on cost-benefit analysis.First,targets of risk control were set,initial screening of proposed risk control options（RCOs） was carried out,and baseline scenarios were identified;Second,costs and benefits arising from RCOs were quantified,and by calculating Cost-Benefit Ratio（CBR） or ICAF,whether RCOs were reasonably practicable can be proved;Finally,risk control decisions were made according to analysis above.The results show that CBR or ICAF vary with different RCOs;RCOs with lower CBR or ICAF should be carried out preferentially;RCOs with CBR or ICAF exceeding the criteria are reasonabl and should not be put into practice.

关 键 词：成本收益分析 油气管道 风险控制 风险决策 事故隐含成本(ICAF) 合理可接受 

分 类 号：X921[环境科学与工程—安全科学]