基于情景分析的城市拆迁突发事件博弈均衡演化模型  

Equilibrium Evolutionary Analysis about City Demolition Emergency Based Scenario Analysis

作　　者：刘德海[1,2] 尹丽娟[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]东北财经大学数学与数量经济学院,大连116025 [2]东北财经大学经济计量分析与预测研究中心,大连116025

出　　处：《管理评论》2012年第5期154-159,共6页Management Review

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(70901016;71171035);全国教育科学规划专项研究课题(GLA102084);辽宁省社会科学规划基金项目(L11BGL007);东北财经大学社会与行为跨学科研究中心跨学科研究招标课题(000906)

摘　　要：城市拆迁改造引发的突发事件问题严重影响到我国社会和谐稳定。本文考虑了政府公信力和声誉上的得失,以及各地方政府多样化拆迁模式的动态演化特征,首先构建了地方政府部门与城市住户之间的城市拆迁改造动态博弈模型,结合城市拆迁的情景分析,构造了合理补偿与强制拆迁两种城市拆迁模式,即子博弈完美纳什均衡;然后借鉴奥野正宽和松井彰彦等不同文化接触下博弈均衡演化模型,分析了地方政府两种拆迁模式之间相互竞争的均衡演化方向,得出地方政府合理拆迁模式的适用条件;最后,提出减少由于城市违法拆迁引发群体性突发事件、完善城市拆迁和补偿政策的相关建议。Incidents caused by urban demolition have impacted China＇s social harmony and stability. Considering the credibility and reputation of local governments and the dynamic characteristic of multiple city demolition models, the paper analyzes two city demolition modes which embody sub-game perfect Nash equilibriums for the dynamic game model between local governments and urban households using the scenario analysis. Then it analyzes the direction of equilibrium evolution in the competition between the two demolition modes learned by Akihiko＇s model about evolutionary analysis of game equilibrium with interaction between different cultures, and then comes to some applicable conditions of urban government reasonable demolition. Lastly, it proposes some recommendations in order to reduce the incidents caused by illegal demolition and improve the urban relocation and compensation.

关 键 词：城市拆迁 突发事件应急管理 均衡演化 演化博弈 情景分析 

分 类 号：F299.2[经济管理—国民经济] F224.32