基于CLIMEX的苜蓿籽象甲在中国的适生区分析  

The potential geographical distribution of Tychius medicaginis based on the CLIMEX in China

作　　者：吴志刚[1] 曲伟伟[1] 张泽华[2] 赵莉[3] 李志红[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学农学与生物技术学院,北京100193 [2]中国农业科学院植物保护研究所,北京100193 [3]新疆农业大学,乌鲁木齐830052

出　　处：《植物保护》2012年第3期63-66,81,共5页Plant Protection

基　　金：现代农业产业技术体系建设项目(CARS-35);公益性行业(农业)科研专项(201003079);中国农业大学研究生科研创新专项(KYCX2010017)

摘　　要：苜蓿籽象甲(Tychius medicaginis Bris.)在我国主要分布于新疆的北疆地区和甘肃,是新疆北疆苜蓿种子田重要害虫。本研究综合运用CLIMEX 3.0与ArcGIS 9.3对苜蓿籽象甲在我国目前以及未来气候条件下的潜在地理分布进行了研究。结果显示:目前气候条件下,苜蓿籽象甲在我国的适生区主要分布于新疆、甘肃、内蒙古等苜蓿主要种植地区。基于中国未来气候的预测结果显示,2020年,其中高度适生区范围由20.25%增加至23.88%,增加了3.63%;非适生区有所减少,由21.32%降至13.99%,减少了7.33%。可以看出,未来气候条件将更适宜苜蓿籽象甲的生存。鉴于苜蓿籽象甲在我国的适生性研究结果,建议进一步完善监测预警预报体系,采取相应有效的防控策略,加强对苜蓿籽象甲的防治措施,严防该虫的进一步传播扩散。Tychius medicaginis is an important grass pest which is mainly distributed in Xinjiang and Gansu in Chi- na. The current and future potential geographic distribution of T. medicaginis was studied by using CLIMEX 3.0 and ArcGIS 9.3. The results showed that under current weather conditions, the suitable areas of the pest were Xinjiang, Gansu and Inner Mongolia in China. Based on projections of future climate in China, the highly suitable area may extend southwards to 33° N in 2020. The highly suitable area would be increased from 20.25% to 23.88%. Meanwhile, the non-suitable area would be reduced from 21.32% to 13.99%. In order to prevent further spreading of the pest, the quarantine and monitoring measures should be enhanced in China.

关 键 词：苜蓿籽象甲 适生性 CLIMEX ARCGIS 牧草 

分 类 号：S435.4[农业科学—农业昆虫与害虫防治] S41[农业科学—植物保护]