基于时间序列模型的海洋溶解氧分析与预测  

Marine Dissolved Oxygen Analysis and Prediction Based on the Time Series Model

作　　者：陈彦[1] 殷建军[1] 项祖丰[1] 汤健彬[2] 

机构地区：[1]浙江工业大学机械工程学院,浙江杭州310014 [2]浙江工业大学信息学院,浙江杭州310014

出　　处：《轻工机械》2012年第3期83-87,96,共6页Light Industry Machinery

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划资助项目(2008BAC42B01)

摘　　要：季节效应是指某序列由于受自然气候等因素的影响,随季节的变化而呈现出周期性的变化规律。季节效应一般以月或季为单位。文中研究的海洋溶解氧含量因为受每日气温周期性变化的影响,以2 h为单位也呈周期性的变化规律,类似于季节效应。采用2 h为采样间隔,尝试模拟乘积季节模型来对溶解氧含量进行分析。利用条件期望预测的差分方程形式对序列进行短期预测,并在实践中比对预测数据和实际数据,证明取得了不错的预测精度。Seasonal effect is that a series present law of periodic with the seasons change caused by natural factors.Month or quarter is seasonal effect unit.Dissolved oxygen content in ocean studied in this paper also change in a periodic unit of 2 hours because of the daily temperatures changing periodic,similar to the seasonal effect.So this paper described to analyze the dissolved oxygen using product season model,that is 2 hours for sampling interval.The article made use of difference equation which predicted by conditional expectation to predict the time series in short-term and compares the prediction data with the real data in practice to prove a good prediction precision.

关 键 词：季节效应 随机性分析 乘积季节模型 条件期望预测 

分 类 号：X834[环境科学与工程—环境工程]