地区电网实时风险评估和预警模式研究  

Real-time risk rssessment and pre-alarm mode study for district power grid

作　　者：章立宗[1] 张锋明[1] 沈谷 潘凯岩[2] 全瑜[3] 张玉友[2] 

机构地区：[1]绍兴电力局,浙江绍兴312000 [2]东方电子股份有限公司,山东烟台264000 [3]绍兴市科技信息研究院,浙江绍兴312000

出　　处：《机电工程》2012年第6期705-708,717,共5页Journal of Mechanical & Electrical Engineering

摘　　要：针对地区电网EMS在风险实时评估、预警和策略应对上的问题,研究了基于交流潮流与直流潮流混合校核技术和Web交互式风险发布技术的电网风险评估与运行方式安排辅助决策系统。结合地区电网的实际情况,重点对电网检修方式和正常方式进行了分析,提出了电网风险评估的全面解决方案和模式,包括确定检修设备、确定薄弱设备、制订风险库、确定风险等级、风险发布等关键节点技术,提出了适合地区电网应用的系统构架。现场运行情况表明,电网风险评估和预警模式方法适用于地、县两级调度系统的风险控制分析和电网运行方式安排校核,具有广泛的实用性,可以保证电网安全、稳定地运行,较好地提升用户对电网风险管控的能力。Aiming at the shortage of traditional energy management system in providing reasonable strategies and plans while grid equipments are in maintenance status, the algorithm mixed AC and DC flow checking technology and the interactive risk release pattern based on Web application technology were used in power grid auxiliary risk analysis system. Combining with the actual situation of district power grid and taking analysis of phenomenon that grid equipments need regular maintenance in normal operation, a comprehensive solution for grid risk assessment was presented, which contains the dealing program that composed of maintenance equipments determining, weak equipments determining, risk library building, risk level determining, risk publication and so on. The results indicate that the method of grid risk assessment and pre-alarm mode has a wide application range, and is available in risk control and analysis and grid operation mode arrangement and examination in region and county dispatching system, and grid safety and steady operation can be ensured, and user＇s ability to control and manage the risk in grid can also be roundly improved.

关 键 词：风险评估 检修 薄弱设备 N-1 

分 类 号：TM7[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]