海南省五指山市生态经济可持续发展动态的研究  

Study of sustainable development trend of eco-economy in Wuzhishan city,Hainan province

作　　者：张伟[1] 佘济云[2] 郭霞[2] 沈金明[2] 

机构地区：[1]北京理工大学法学院,北京100081 [2]中南林业科技大学,湖南长沙410004

出　　处：《中南林业科技大学学报》2012年第5期125-128,169,共5页Journal of Central South University of Forestry & Technology

基　　金：海南省林业局重点科研项目(LK20118478);森林经理学湖南省"十一五"重点学科项目(034-0014)

摘　　要：为了研究五指山市历年的可持续发展状况,通过建立评价指标体系,利用熵值法对五指山市2004年～2010年的可持续发展系数进行计算和分析,并在此基础上预测未来6年的变化趋势。结果表明:五指山市可持续发展中经济子系统起到了重要作用;可持续发展系数逐年降低,2008年达到了最低为0.256 6;根据线性趋势预测模型得到的未来6年可持续发展系数;说明五指山市改变现有经济发展模式刻不容缓。In order to investigate the sustainable development status for consecutive years of Wuzhishan city, the ecological economy sustainable development indicators and entropy method were used to calculate and analyze sustainable development coefficients of Wuzhishan city in the year of 2004 - 2010. Based on these, the changing trend of Wuzhishan city for the future of 6 years was predicted. The results show that the economic subsystem played an important role in sustainable development of Wuzhishan city; the sustainable development coefficient was reduced year by year, the minimum value was 0.256 6 in 2008; By using the linear trend prediction model, the sustainable development coefficients in the next six years were obtained. The results suggested that the existing model of economy development should be changed desperately.

关 键 词：生态经济可持续发展 熵值法 动态分析 五指山市 

分 类 号：S729.9[农业科学—林木遗传育种]