提前退休模式与行为及其影响因素——基于中国综合社会调查数据的分析  

Patterns, Behavior and Determinants of Early Retirement of the Elderly in Urban China:Analysis Based on Cox Proportional Hazard Model

作　　者：廖少宏[1] 

机构地区：[1]山东工商学院公共管理学院

出　　处：《中国人口科学》2012年第3期96-105,112,共10页Chinese Journal of Population Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(编号:11CRK017);教育部人文社科研究项目(编号:12YJC840033)的资助

摘　　要：文章基于2008年中国综合社会调查数据,对城镇人口提前退休模式与行为及其影响因素进行了分析。主要结论是:(1)提前退休模式与行为存在显著的性别差异,女性比男性距离法定退休年龄更近时退休,表现出较为明显的集聚特征,法定退休年龄对女性退休模式与行为的影响更大;(2)随着中国家庭子女数量的减少,劳动力市场灵活性的逐步增强,人们劳动参与意愿和可能性都会显著提升,提前退休的可能性越来越小,而且不断提高的受教育程度也会使女性提前退休的可能性减小;(3)中国的社会保障制度对男性提前退休有显著影响,对女性则不显著。与养老保险制度相比,医疗保险与失业保险制度对男性提前退休的影响更大,基本医疗保险制度的完善会增加提前退休的可能性,失业保险制度的完善更有可能增强男性的工作意愿,降低提前退休的可能性。Early retirement patterns and behavior of the elderly in urban China have not yet drawn attention from scholars.Based on data of China General Social Survey conducted in 2008,the paths,behavior and factors of early retirement of the urban elderly are explored.The results show that:(1) more women early retire than men do and the statutory retirement age takes more effect on female retirement patterns and behavior;(2) as the numbers of children in a household decline and labor market builds up more flexibility,the elderly are less likely to retire earlier,and continual improvement in education will significantly reduce the possibility of female early retirement;(3) social security systems only have significant effects on male's behavior of early retirement.Compared with the pension system,the health insurance and unemployment insurance system have stronger impact on early retirement,and the improvement of the basic medical insurance system tends to increase the possibility of male's early retirement.Improving the system of unemployment insurance is more likely to enhance man's willingness to work and reduce the possibility of early retirement.

关 键 词：提前退休 COX比例风险模型 法定退休年龄 

分 类 号：F249.2[经济管理—劳动经济]