菲律宾南海政策:利益驱动的政策选择  

South China Sea Policy of the Philippines:Interest Driven Policy Choice

作　　者：鞠海龙 

机构地区：[1]暨南大学国际关系学院/华侨华人研究院

出　　处：《当代亚太》2012年第3期78-93,共16页Journal of Contemporary Asia-Pacific Studies

基　　金：教育部社科基金项目"南海周边国家与地区南海政策与中国南海维权"(项目编号:11YJAGJW008);广东省普通高校人文社科重大攻关项目"南海开发与广东省海洋经济建设研究"(项目编号:10ZGXM84002)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：菲律宾南海政策的利益驱动特征表现在两个方面:一是基于安全和经济利益,在没有任何合法依据的情况下宣称对南海部分岛礁及海域拥有主权和管辖权;二是利益因素一直是影响其南海政策的主要因素。正是因为菲律宾南海政策具有利益驱动的鲜明特征,所以它更容易在国际环境相对有利的条件下,受国内军方和能源利益集团的推动,从而表现出激进化的特征。2011年以来,菲律宾激进化的南海政策恶化了中菲关系,加剧了中国与东盟国家在南海问题上的对立,给中国周边环境带来了不利影响。菲律宾激进的南海政策既考验着中国南海维权的底线,也考验着中国经营周边战略环境的智慧。中国的战略应对不但要着眼于南海问题的具体事务,而且要有更长远、更清晰的战略研判。The interests driving the policy of the Philippines towards the South China Sea are represented in two ways., first, on the basis of economic and security interests, the Philippines claims both sovereignty and adminis- trative authority over some islands and waters in the South China Sea despite lacking legal basis for such claims~ second is that interests have long been the main factor influencing the South China Sea policy of the Philippines. Pre- cisely because its policy is clearly driven by interests, given the current favor- able international environment, under the influence of interest groups repre- senting the military and energy companies, the Philippines has trended to- wards aggressive policy actions in the South China Sea. These actions have caused the deterioration of relations between China and the Philippines, have deepened conflict between China and ASEAN on the issue of the South China Sea, and in general terms have led to an increasingly unfavorable environ- ment for China vis-a-vis its neighbors. The aggressive nature of the Philip- pines policy has challenged China＇s redline with respect to protection of its rights in the South China Sea and is testing the wisdom of China＇s strategy towards its neighboring countries. China＇s strategic response needs not only look carefully at the current situation in the South China Sea, but China must also take a long term view and make clearer policy assessments.

关 键 词：菲律宾 南海政策 利益驱动 

分 类 号：D823[政治法律—政治学]