人民币汇率波动对中国货币供给影响研究  

The Research on Influence of RMB Exchange Rate Fluctuation on Money Supply of China

作　　者：王帅林[1] 

机构地区：[1]新疆财经大学金融学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830012

出　　处：《广东金融学院学报》2012年第3期103-115,共13页Journal of Guangdong University of Finance

摘　　要：选取影响中国货币供给的人民币汇率、国内生产总值和消费者价格指数三个变量,利用格兰杰因果关系检验、脉冲响应函数和方差分解对中国货币供给M2、M1和M0的影响,实证分析人民币汇率波动对中国货币供给影响的机制。结果发现,人民币汇率波动对M2和M1的影响较强,而对M0的影响较弱;也使中国货币供给的内生性增加;而且改变了中国货币供给的传导机制;同时使中国货币供给和需求不平衡;此外改变了中国调节货币供给的方式。After reform of RMB exchange rate system, the influence of RMB exchange rate fluctuation on money supply of China is get stronger. This paper collects RMB exchange rate, GDP and CPI, analyzes influence of RMB exchange rate fluctuation on money supply of China ,with Granger, impulse response function and variance decomposition. The conclusions are ： （ 1 ） the influence of RMB exchange rate fluctuation on M2 and M1 are relatively stron- ger, but a little weaker on M0; （2）RMB exchange rate fluctuation enhances the endophytism of money supply of China ; （3） this fluctuation changes transmission mechanism of money supply of China; （4） it brings about imbalance between money supplying and money demanding ; （5） it adjusts means of money supply of China. On the basis of the conclusion, this panet gives the related noliev proposal.

关 键 词：人民币汇率 货币供给 实证研究 向量自回归模型 

分 类 号：F832.63[经济管理—金融学]