战时不完全信息战术导弹需求量预测方法  

Forecasting Model of Tactical Missile Requirement Based on Incomplete Information in Wartime

作　　者：陈小卫[1] 王新政[1] 岳奎志[1] 宋贵宝[1] 

机构地区：[1]海军航空工程学院,山东烟台264001

出　　处：《现代防御技术》2012年第3期155-160,共6页Modern Defence Technology

摘　　要：针对传统方法难以实现战时信息不完备条件下导弹需求量预测的问题,提出了一种基于粗糙集的战术导弹需求量预测方法。在对战术导弹需求量影响因素分析的基础上,建立了战术导弹需求量预测不完备决策信息表。利用相容关系对不完备决策信息表中对象分类,并采用差别函数方法求解各对象的相对约简,从而获取战术导弹需求量的最优广义规则集。算例验证了方法的有效性。Aiming at the problem of incomplete information in wartime, a forecasting model of tactical missile requirement based on rough set is established. The incomplete decision table is established based on the analysis of the factors affecting missile requirement. The objects of incomplete information system are classified by using tolerance relation. The relative reduction of each object is solved by the discernibility function, and then the optimal generalized rules of tactical missile requirement are obtained. Finally, the calculation result of an example shows that the model is effective.

关 键 词：战术导弹 需求量预测 粗糙集 不完备 最优广义规则 

分 类 号：TJ761.1[兵器科学与技术—武器系统与运用工程] N945[自然科学总论—系统科学]