东海热带气旋路径预报模式业务运行结果及改进模式  

THE OPERATIONAL PREDICTION RESULTS OF THE EAST CHINA SEA TROPICAL CYCLONE MODEL AND IMPROVEMENT OF THE MODEL

作　　者：顾建峰[1] 蒋贤安[1] 殷鹤宝[1] 徐一鸣[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海台风研究所,上海200030

出　　处：《热带气象学报》2000年第1期54-61,共8页Journal of Tropical Meteorology

摘　　要：统计分析了东海热带气旋路径预报模式在１９９６年、１９９７年利 １９９８年三年业务运行的结果；系统地与主观预报和日本数值预报结果进行了同个例同时次的比较；对模式边界层物理过程中摩擦拖曳系数以及二次台风Ｂｏｇｕｓ技术、三维最优插值客观分析方法和资料同化等影响热带气旋移动的作用进行了试验研究；实现了间歇资料同化处理的业务化运行。Three years' operational prediction results by the tropical cyclone track model of East China sea in 1996. 1997 and 1998 were counted in this paper. These results were compared with subjective forecast and Japan typhoon NWP on the same samples and the same time levels systematically. Experiment research were carried out on influencing tropical cyclone movement with the drag coefficient of planetary boundary layer physical process and twice typhoon bogus technique and three dimensional optimal interpolation objective analysis and data assimilation. And the operational running of intermittent data assimilation was achieved in 1998.

关 键 词：热带气旋 边界层 台风 气旋预报 气旋路径 东海 

分 类 号：P457.8[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]