黔东南生态文明建设实验区与全国生态效率的动态比较与趋势分析  

Dynamic Comparison and Trend analysis of Southeast Guizhou's Experimental Area of Eco-civilization Construction and the National Eco-efficiency

作　　者：杨廷锋[1] 赵永旭[1] 徐晓超[1] 

机构地区：[1]凯里学院,贵州凯里556000

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2012年第17期9520-9521,9524,共3页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：凯里学院2010年规划课题(Z1008)

摘　　要：为了更好地把握黔东南生态文明建设实验区的生态效率发展水平,采用基于生态足迹模型的单一比率法,将其生态效率与全国的生态效率进行动态比较研究。结果显示:1978～2010年黔东南生态文明建设实验区的生态效率一直低于全国的生态效率,生态效率多年平均值不及全国的1/2,与全国多年平均绝对差距为1 630.095元/hm2,且1978～2002年二者的差距呈逐年加大的趋势,差距从1978的276.551元/hm2上升到2002年的峰值3 227.713元/hm2,年平均增加量118.047元/hm2,尤其是从1992年后差距拉大特别明显,每年平均增加量为194.771元/hm2,从2003年起,二者差距呈减小趋势。根据灰色系统预测结果,2011～2025年,黔东南生态文明建设实验区的生态效率与全国的生态效率之差距将逐渐缩小,且从2019年开始,黔东南生态文明建设实验区的生态效率将超过全国的生态效率。In order to better understand the development level of eco-efficiency in Southeast Guizhou＇ s experimental area of eeo-civilization construction, we conduct dynamic comparison research of its eco-efficiency and the national eco-efficieney, using single ratio method based on the ecological footprint model, to grasp the gap between its eco-efficiency and the national eco-effieieney, so that we can take appropriate countermeasures to improve eco-efficiency. The results show that in the period 1978 -2010, the eco-efficiency in Southeast Guizhou＇ s experi- mental area of eco-civilization construction was always lower than the national eco-efficiency ; the long-time average annual value of its eeo-effi- ciency was less than one half of that of the national eco-efficiency, with the absolute gap of 1630.095 yuan/hm^2, and the gap tended to widen year by year in the period 1978 - 2002 （ the gap increased from 276. 551 yuart/hm^2 in 1978 to peak of 3 227. 713 yuan/hm^2 in 2002, with an average annual increase of 118. 047 yuan/hm^2, and especially after 1992, the gap was particularly evident, with an average annual increase of 194. 771 yuan/hm^2）, but from 2003, the gap between the two tended to decrease. Based on the prediction results of gray system, in the peri- od 2011 -2025, the gap between the eco-efficiency in Southeast Guizhou＇ s experimental area of eeo-civilization construction and the national eco-efficiency will gradually narrow, and from 2019, the eco-efficiency in Southeast Guizhou＇ s experimental area of eco-civilization construc- tion will be more than the national eco-efficiency.

关 键 词：生态足迹模型 单一比率法 灰色预测 黔东南生态文明建设实验区 

分 类 号：S181.3[农业科学—农业基础科学]