新特里芬悖论的逻辑辨析及对中国的启示  

Logical Analysis of New Triffin Paradox:Based on Cointegration and VECM Model Analysis

作　　者：王雅炯[1] 

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学,北京100081

出　　处：《上海金融学院学报》2012年第1期30-40,共11页Journal of Shanhai Finance University

摘　　要：本文从特里芬悖论的原意出发提出新特里芬悖论概念,通过协整检验和构建向量误差修正模型(VECM),建立美元实际有效汇率与货币供应量、国际资本收支之间的长期均衡和短期动态关系,并利用脉冲响应函数和方差分解原理分析变量短期波动给美元实际有效汇率的冲击。本文分析表明,新特里芬悖论产生的问题对实际经济活动影响有限,当世界各国的美元需求增长可持续时,当前以美元为主导的国际货币体系不存在根本性矛盾,新特里芬悖论并不能作为美元贬值政策的理论依据,这也对人民币国际化和外汇政策有长期的借鉴意义。This paper raised the concept of New Triffin Paradox in the original meaning.Through the cointegration test and VECM,we established the long-term equilibrium and short-term dynamic relationship between the actual and effective exchange rate of USD and currency supply,international capital expenditure,using the impulse response function and variance decomposition principle to verify the shock from those variables.The analysis show the fact that there is no fundamental contradiction of the current international monetary system,the New Triffin Paradox can not be used as the theoretical basis for depreciation of the dollar policy,which has long-term reference to the Internationalization of RMB and foreign exchange policies.

关 键 词：新特里芬悖论 经常项逆差 协整检验 向量误差修正模型 

分 类 号：F830.73[经济管理—金融学]