判别分析法在土石坝稳定性快速判别中的应用  

Rapid determination of earth-rock dam stability based on discriminant analysis

作　　者：祝龙[1] 王晓刚[1] 宣国祥[1,2] 李云[1,2] 刘火箭[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京水利科学研究院水工水力学研究所,江苏南京210029 [2]南京水利科学研究院水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,江苏南京210029

出　　处：《水利水电科技进展》2012年第3期39-42,85,共5页Advances in Science and Technology of Water Resources

基　　金：水利部公益性行业科研专项(201001033);"十一五"国家科技支撑计划(2006BAC14B00;2009BAK56B04);国家国际科技合作项目(S2012ZR0108)

摘　　要：为了在超标准洪水来临发生漫坝溢流时对土石坝坝体的稳定性进行快速判别,基于判别分析法,采用27座土石坝溃坝资料建立了坝体在超标准洪水条件下的稳定性快速判别模型。实际应用结果表明:所建模型交叉验证正确率最高可达96.3%;与现有的各种坝体稳定性判别方法相比,判别分析法是相对有效的坝体稳定性判别方法,可很好地应用于超标准洪水条件下土石坝稳定性的快速判别。In order to conduct a fast and accurate discriminant analysis of the stability of an artificial earth-rock dam during a flood exceeding standard flood levels,a discriminant model was developed based on the discriminant method and data from 27 artificial earth-rock dams.The results of the practical applications indicated that the accuracy of the cross validation was up to 96.3%.Compared with the existing discriminant methods,this discriminant analysis was found to be more efficient and could easily be applied in the rapid discrimination of the artificial earth-rock dams’ stability during floods exceeding standard flood levels.

关 键 词：土石坝 超标准洪水 溃坝 判别分析 

分 类 号：TV641[水利工程—水利水电工程]