中国国际收支双顺差:演进前景及政策涵义  

The Dual Surplus of China's International Payment:Evolution Prospects and Policy Implications

作　　者：张明[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所,北京100871

出　　处：《上海金融》2012年第6期3-9,116,共7页Shanghai Finance

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目<二十国集团面临的全球治理重点问题研究>(批准号11AGJ001);中国社会科学院创新工程项目<国际货币金融体系改革与中国的政策选择>的资助

摘　　要：本文首先回顾了中国国际收支双顺差的历史与现状,分析了双顺差产生的根源、后果及相关福利损失。其次,本文对中国经常账户与资本账户余额的演进前景进行了展望。随着中国货物贸易顺差的相对下降、海外投资净收益的可能恶化、中国企业海外直接投资规模的上升,以及资本账户下证券投资与其他投资规模与波动性的增强,未来几年内中国国际收支双顺差的状况有望显著缓解。最后,本文讨论了中国国际收支双顺差收缩的政策涵义,特别是对美国国债市场、人民币汇率、央行冲销行为以及中国资本账户开放等问题的潜在影响。By reviewing the history and the current situation of the dual surplus of China's international payment, the article first analyzes the root causes of dual surplus, its consequences and the associated welfare losses. The article looks into the future of China's current account and capital account balance. China's dual surplus of international payment is expected to be significantly alleviated in the next few years thanks to the relative decline of China's surplus in commodity trade, the possible revenue decrease of the overseas investment against the fact of ever-increasing direct investment of China's enterprises as well as the highlighting securities and other investment of the capital account in terms of scale and volatility. The paper discusses in the last part the policy implications of China's dual surplus contraction, in particular the potential impact on the U.S. Treasury market, the RMB exchange rate, the central bank write-off behavior as well as China's capital account liberalization.

关 键 词：国际收支双顺差 演进前景 政策涵义 

分 类 号：F80[经济管理] G28[文化科学]