用实物期权法确定日本落叶松纸浆林的最优轮伐期  

Optimal Rotation Age of Larix kaempferi Pulpwood Plantation by Real Options Approach

作　　者：李子敬[1] 张守攻[1] 孙晓梅[1] 陈东升[1] 李忠国[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国林业科学研究院林业研究所,北京100091

出　　处：《林业科学》2012年第5期61-66,共6页Scientia Silvae Sinicae

基　　金：林业公益性行业科研专项经费项目(201104027)

摘　　要：为了更加科学地采伐利用北亚热带高山区日本落叶松工业纸浆林,利用实物期权法分析评价纸浆材价格波动条件下日本落叶松的经济效益,确定不同价格水平条件下日本落叶松的柔性最优轮伐期,并得出不同林龄时实施采伐的价格阈值。结果表明:在当前日本落叶松纸浆材价格为500元·m-3的情况下,立地指数为15,17,19和21的日本落叶松最优轮伐期分别为25,23,21和19年,在价格较高时的最短轮伐期分别为23,20,17和15年;在林龄小于最短轮伐期时,无论纸浆材价格为何值都应选择等待策略。The economic benefits and optimal rotation age of Larix kaempferi pulpwood plantation were analyzed under stochastic pulpwood price using real options approach in order to more effectively management to L. kaempferi pulpwood plantation in northern sub-tropical alpine area. Flexible rotation age and threshold price to different stand age of different site index plantation were developed. The result indicated that ： first, the optimal rotation age of L. kaempferi plantation in site index 15,17, 19,21 were 25,23,21 and 19 a respectively as the current pulpwood price equals 500 yuan·m^-3, and the shortest rotation age were 23, 20,17 and 15 a when face to better price. Second, Wait option should be the optimum strategy in any pulpwood price level when the stand age lower than the shortest rotation age.

关 键 词：日本落叶松 实物期权法 二项式模型 均值回复过程 

分 类 号：S757.44[农业科学—森林经理学]