基于STR模型的中国宏观经济周期拐点的识别与预测  

CHINA'S TURNING POINTS OF BUSINESS CYCLES ON STR MODEL

作　　者：余宇新[1] 谢鸿飞[2] 

机构地区：[1]上海外国语大学国际金融贸易学院,上海200083 [2]惠州学院经济管理系,广东惠州516007

出　　处：《经济理论与经济管理》2012年第6期15-22,共8页Economic Theory and Business Management

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(11CJL024);复旦大学"985工程"三期整体推进社会科学研究项目(2011SHKXZD003);中国博士后科学基金项目(2011M500524;20110490654)

摘　　要：本文应用平滑转换模型(STR)对我国经济周期的运行特点及拐点识别进行深入研究,并成功识别出经济周期拐点。研究发现我国GDP机制转换发生在自身滞后1期,增长率9.6%是扩张与收缩的临界点;固定投资机制转换发生在自身的滞后4期,增长率19%是扩张与收缩的临界点;固定资产投资对GDP的拉动效应具有较为缓慢的调整特征和滞后效应,机制转换发生在固定资产投资的滞后2期。Based on smooth transition regression model, this paper studied systematically the identifi- cation of the turning point of China＇s business cycles. The empirical results showed that the regime switc- hing of GDP took place in lagged one period, the growth rate of middle value of expansion and depression was 9. 6%; the regime switching of the fixed investments took place in lagged four periods, the growth rate of middle value of expansion and depression was 19%; the fixed investments could promote economic slowly, and the transition location of GDP took place in lagged two periods of the fixed investments.

关 键 词：经济周期 拐点识别 机制转换 平滑转换 

分 类 号：F124.8[经济管理—世界经济]