农产品滞销现象与供给过剩的形成机制  

On "Hard to Sell Farm-Produce" and Formation of Supply Surplus

作　　者：道日娜[1] 王求名[1] 

机构地区：[1]内蒙古大学经济管理学院,呼和浩特010021

出　　处：《农业经济与管理》2012年第3期64-69,共6页Agricultural Economics and Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71003044)(71163027);内蒙古自然科学基金项目(2010BS1007)

摘　　要：农产品供给过剩是农户在信息不对称条件下,基于自身生产要素禀赋的理性选择。本文从供给层面,以"产业内部农户数量不确知"为突破点,运用生产——销售二阶段模型,解释农产品供给过剩的形成机制。模型分析表明,农户农产品期望收益越高,行业内部农户数量越大,发生供给过剩的可能性越大。考虑农户对行业内部总体农户数量估计存在偏差情况下,个体农户的主观猜测与客观分布的偏差越大,行业内出现供给过剩的可能性越大。本文从完善总量信息方面给出对策建议。Based on own factor endowment, supply of farm products is a rational selection for farm households under the information asymmetry. The paper focused on supply level, especially ＂uncertainty about farm households＂, and then established a two-stage model to explain the formation of supply surplus. The model analysis showed that supply surplus could be led by expected revenue and farm households＂ numbers. What is more, because of the information asymmetry among farm households, the deviation in subjective guess and objective probability distributions made supply surplus more possible. Finally, this paper gave relevant suggestions on account of perfect information.

关 键 词：农产品 供给过剩 行业内农户数量不确知 

分 类 号：F32[经济管理—产业经济]