基于ARIMA模型的国内药品价格管制政策评估  

Policy Evaluation of Drug Pricing Regulations Based on ARIMA Model

作　　者：张韵慧[1] 问瑜英[1] 费红艳[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]天津大学,天津300072 [2]北京化工大学,北京100029

出　　处：《中国卫生经济》2012年第6期5-7,共3页Chinese Health Economics

摘　　要：政府出台了多项管制政策以控制过快上涨的药品价格,国内学者们对其效果尚无定论。利用20014年4月至2011年4月间与药品相关的价格指数时间序列数据建立求和自回归移动平均(ARIMA)模型,进而对此期间颁布的药品价格管制政策的效果进行评价。评价结果发现,这些政策对药品相关的价格指数的作用均不明显,从实证角度证实了近年来政府实施的各项价格管制政策未能达到很好地控制药品价格上涨、减轻群众用药负担的目的。建议政府一方面切实调查了解药品生产、流通成本,另一方面加快改革医疗卫生体制。The government adopted many regulations to rein in drug prices, but the effect of it is controversial. Using the time series of price index related to drugs from April 2004 to April 2011, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average （ARIMA） models are established, so as to evaluate tile real effects of regulations made by gow^rnment. The result shows that these regulations didn＇t work well on tile drug prices. It＇s empirically proven that these regulations didn＇t achieve the goals which are to control the drug prices and reduce the burden of patients. Therefire, government has to investigate the drug cost of production and circulation more practically, and speed up the reform of heahh care system.

关 键 词：药品价格 管制政策 自回归移动平均模型 

分 类 号：F203[经济管理—国民经济] R95[医药卫生—药学]