广州市空气污染与城区居民心脑血管疾病死亡的时间序列分析  

Air Pollution and the Cerebro Cardio-vascular Diseases Mortality of Population in Guangzhou:a Time-series Analysis

作　　者：殷文军[1,2] 彭晓武[1] 宋世震[3] 李宁[3] 余素君[4] 

机构地区：[1]环境保护部华南环境科学研究所环境与健康实验室,广东广州510655 [2]武汉市职业病防治院职业卫生科 [3]武汉科技大学医学院预防医学系 [4]华中科技大学物理学院教研室

出　　处：《环境与健康杂志》2012年第6期521-525,F0003,共6页Journal of Environment and Health

基　　金：2007年国家环保公益性行业科研专项(200709004)

摘　　要：目的探讨广州市空气污染物(PM10、SO2、NO2)对心脑血管疾病死亡的短期影响。方法收集广州市城区居民心脑血管疾病死亡统计资料及同期大气污染物浓度、气象监测资料,采用时间序列的自回归模型,在控制长期趋势、短期趋势、气象因素等混杂因素的基础上,分析广州中心城区2006年1月1日—2008年12月31日空气污染物与居民心脑血管疾病每日死亡人数的关系。结果 2007年和2008年的死亡病例数高于2006年,每年3—12月的死亡病例数低于1月和2月。NO2和PM10浓度与心脑血管疾病每日死亡人数呈正相关,空气中NO2和PM10的浓度每升高1μg/m3,心脑血管疾病每日死亡人数将分别增加1.8%和1.1%,前6 d的NO2和PM10水平对当天的疾病死亡病例数有负影响。PM10、SO2、NO2浓度之间呈现一定正相关,并具有滞后现象。结论广州市大气中NO2和PM10对人群健康存在短期影响,能增加人群心脑血管疾病死亡。Objective To explore the effects of air pollutants （PM10, SO2, NO2） on the daily population mortality of cardio -cerebrovascular diseases. Methods The relationship between air pollution and the daily population mortality of cardio- cerebrovascular diseases was investigated by collecting the air pollution data, the meteorological data and daily mortality of cardio-cerebrovascular diseases in Guangzhou from January 1,2006 to December 31,2008. The time-series analysis by auto- regression model was used, controlling for long-term trends, seasonal patterns and meteorological variables. Results The numbers of daily mortality in 2007 and 2008 were higher than that in 2006. The numbers were higher in January and February than those in the other months. The levels of NO2 and PM10 in the air and daily mortality of cardio-cerebrovascular diseases had a positive correlation. An increase of 1μg/m3 of NO2 and PM10 corresponded to 1.8% and 1.1% increase of daily mortality of cardio-cerebrovascular diseases respectively. The levels of NO2 and PM10 on the former sixth day had a negative impact on the daily mortality of cardio-cerebrovascular diseases six days later. In addition, among air pollutants （PM10, SO2, and NO2）, a positive correlation and hysteresis was seen. Conclusion NO2 and PM10 in the air are the risk factors for cardio-cerebrovascular diseases mortality in Guangzhou.

关 键 词：空气污染 时间序列 心脑血管疾病 每日死亡人数 

分 类 号：R122.2[医药卫生—环境卫生学]