天津市滨海新区风暴潮灾害风险评估  

RISK ASSESSMENT ON STORM SURGE OF TIANJIN BINHAI NEW AREA

作　　者：胡蓓蓓[1] 周俊[2] 王军[3] 许世远[3] 孟伟庆[1] 

机构地区：[1]天津师范大学城市与环境科学学院,天津300387 [2]天津市控制地面沉降工作办公室,天津300061 [3]华东师范大学地理信息科学教育部重点实验室,上海200241

出　　处：《海洋湖沼通报》2012年第2期114-122,共9页Transactions of Oceanology and Limnology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目(40730526);天津市高等学校人文社会科学研究一般项目(20092117);天津师范大学博士基金(52X09019);天津市自然科学基金重点项目(11JCZDJC24500)资助

摘　　要：根据经地面沉降订正后的1959～2005年海河闸站年极值最高潮位数据,运用Gumbel型和P～型计算方法求得不同频率年极值高潮位;根据历史上典型风暴潮淹没情景,在现有防潮堤的情况下,运用圣维南和薄壁堰自由出流等公式推求不同频率风暴潮进潮量;利用开发的无源和有源淹没程序计算不同频率风暴潮淹没范围。结果如下:天津市滨海新区出现频率为5%、1%和0.5%的年最高潮位分别达4.54m、4.92m和5.08m(大沽零点基面);现状条件下,3种频率风暴潮可能淹没的土地面积分别达km2、km2和118.50km2;淹没损失分别达1.79×108元、3.93×108元和5.06×108元。According to representative storm surges in history and the existing tidal barriers, tidal influx volumes of storm surges in different frequencies were calculated by hydrological mathematical model, and the submerged areas of storm surges in different frequencies were calculated by the module of “non-source flood” and“source flood”. The Gumbel method was used to calculate the annual high tidal level in different frequencies. The annual high tidal levels are 4.54m, 4.92m, and 5.08m in the frequencies of 5%, 1%, and 0.5%. The sub- merged areas account for 4.54km^2, 4.92km^2, and 118.50km6^2 ; and the losses of the sub- merged are 1.79 × 10^8 Yuan, 3.93× 108 Yuan, and 5.06 × 10^8 Yuan respectively induced by storm surge in the frequencies of 5%, 1%, and 0.5%.

关 键 词：风暴潮 风险评估 天津市滨海新区 

分 类 号：P731.23[天文地球—海洋科学]