市场化改革对中国储蓄率的影响研究  

The Impact of Market Oriented Reforms on China's National Savings Rate

作　　者：王博[1] 

机构地区：[1]南开大学经济学院,天津300071

出　　处：《金融研究》2012年第6期68-82,共15页Journal of Financial Research

基　　金：教育部重大攻关项目(09JZD0016);教育部重点研究基地重大项目(2009JJD790027)和教育部人文社会科学青年项目(11YJC790171)的资助

摘　　要：众多研究表明收入分配格局会影响国民储蓄率,由于部门边际储蓄倾向的不同,企业和政府部门相对于居民部门在总体分配格局中占比的上升会提高国民储蓄率,造成事实上的"国富民穷"。本文利用1978～2007年中国省际面板数据,研究了由市场化改革和对外开放政策所引发的中国国民收入分配格局的变化及其对中国国民储蓄率的影响。研究发现,在收入分配格局受制于巨大社会经济结构变迁的制度约束下,中国收入分配格局的变化能够很好的解释国民储蓄率的变化,而政府储蓄行为的变化对近期国民储蓄率上升具有重要的解释力。本文的估计结果对替代性宏观收入分配格局变量的选取、估计方法的选择及样本区间的选择都是稳健的,由市场化改革引致的宏观收入分配格局变化的储蓄效应非常显著。Many research have indicated that the distribution of national income have effect on the national sav- ings rate. And due to marginal saving propensity differences, an increase in share for corporate and government sectors in the distribution of national income relative to household sector will raise national saving rate. This pa- per studies the savings effect brought by the changes in the distribution of national income, which originated from the market-oriented reforms per se. The econometric analysis is conducted by the method of panel data for individual provinces during 1978-2007, and the empirical result conforms well to the theory, i.e. In the context of an institutional environment featuring the distribution of national income constrained by wide social- economic structure adjustments, changes in the distribution of national income can convincingly explain China＇s national savings rate evolution, and changes in the government savings behavior can explain the rise of the national sav- ings rate mostly. Besides, the estimation result is robust to the selection of estimation methods and sample inter- vals, as well as to the selection of substitutive variables for the distribution of national income; for changes in the distribution of national income induced by market oriented reforms, the savings effect is highly significant.

关 键 词：市场化改革 对外开放 收入分配 国民储蓄率 政府储蓄 

分 类 号：F123.9[经济管理—世界经济] F832.22F224