长三角地区台风灾害链特征分析  

Characteristic analysis of typhoon disaster chains in the Yangtze River Delta region of China

作　　者：帅嘉冰[1,2] 徐伟[1,2,3] 史培军[1,2,3] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室,北京100875 [2]北京师范大学环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室,北京100875 [3]北京师范大学民政部-教育部减灾与应急管理研究院,北京100875

出　　处：《自然灾害学报》2012年第3期36-42,共7页Journal of Natural Disasters

基　　金：国家"十一五"科技支撑计划项目(2008BAK50B07);国家自然科学基金委国际合作项目(40821140354)

摘　　要：利用1951-2008年58年的历史台风资料分析了台风致灾因子,提取了影响长三角地区的187场台风并根据台风路径频率,将影响长三角地区的台风划分为西行、穿越和北上3类优势路径和一类特殊路径。然后,结合自然环境特征和DEM高程数据,将长三角地区台风孕灾环境划分为海岸带、北部平原和南部丘陵3个区域,并分析了每个区域发生的主要台风灾害链类型。针对"云娜"、"芸妮"和"爱娜斯"3个台风案例,分析了台风路径与不同孕灾环境组合形成的不同台风灾害链。结果表明:海岸带易引发台风-大风-巨浪或风暴潮灾害链;丘陵区域易引发台风-暴雨-山洪、泥石流和滑坡灾害链;平原地区易引发台风-暴雨-平原洪水和内涝灾害链。西行类台风影响海岸带和南部丘陵地区,易形成海岸带和南部丘陵区的台风灾害链;穿越类台风影响整个长三角地区,3种类型的台风灾害链都易发生;北上类台风一般只影响海岸带,易形成海岸带的台风灾害链。Based on the frequency of historical typhoons, the typhoon tracks that struck the Yangtze River Delta re- gion were divided into three main types： westward, traverse and northward, and one special track in this paper. Then with the digital elevation model （DEM） data and geographical environment, the Yangtze River Delta region was divided into three areas： coastal area in the east, hilly area in the south and plain area in the north. Finally, the characteristics of typhoon disaster chains in the combinations of typhoon tracks and environment were analyzed with the typical cases of ＂Ranan＂, ＂Winnie＂ and ＂Agnes＂. Results show that typhoon-strong wind-high wave / storm surge disaster chain are easily to form in the coastal area, typhoon-rainstorm-flash flood, landslide and debris flow disaster chain are easily to form in the hilly area and typhoon-rainstorm-plain flood and inundation disaster chain are easily to form in the plain area. The westward type of typhoon mainly affects the coastal area and the hilly area is prone to induce the relative typhoon disaster chain in these two areas; The traverse typhone mainly affect the whole Yangtze River Delta region and would cause the above mentioned three chains; and the northward typhoon mainly affect the coastal area and would easily induce high wave or storm surge disasters.

关 键 词：台风灾害链 致灾因子 孕灾环境 长三角地区 

分 类 号：P444[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]