行驶里程数对车险净保费的影响研究——基于公路里程对交通事故损失的影响视角  

Study of the Impacts of Mileage on Vehicle Insurance Net Premiums——From the Perspective of the Impacts of Mileage on Accident Losses

作　　者：张连增[1] 段白鸽[1] 

机构地区：[1]南开大学经济学院风险管理与保险学系,天津300071

出　　处：《保险研究》2012年第6期29-38,共10页Insurance Studies

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金"金融工程与精算学中的定量风险管理统计模型与方法"(NKZXTD1101)的资助

摘　　要：目前国内几乎所有财险公司的数据库中还没有行驶里程数的统计数据。文章首次研究了行驶里程数对车险净保费的影响,即利用我国2000年～2009年31个省、市、自治区10年的面板数据单位根检验、协整检验等计量经济学方法来研究交通事故损失额与公路里程数之间长期稳定的均衡关系,得出事故损失额与公路里程数之间存在显著正相关关系。本研究的应用价值在于,该相关关系可以作为车险净保费与行驶里程数之间关系的有效参考,并提出了考虑车险净保费与行驶里程数之间关系的三种可行方案。这些研究为将行驶里程数这一影响因素纳入我国车险GLM定价提供了重要的理论支持和实践参考,也对解决我国交通、能源和环境问题具有一定的借鉴作用。Since there is no mileage statistics in the database of almost all domestic property insurance companies currently, the paper proposed to study the impact of driving mileages on net premiums of vehicle insurance. The pa- per made use of the data of 31 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions in China from 2000 to 2009 and conducted an empirical analysis to study the long-term stable equilibrium between the accident losses and highway mileages by using the panel unit root test and co-integration test of econometric methods. The result showed that there was a significant positive correlation between the accident losses and highway mileages. The practical value of this study was that the stable relationship could be regarded as a valid reference of the relationship between net pre- miums of vehicle insurance and driving mileages. Moreover, the paper proposed three feasible programs to consider the relationship between net premiums of vehicle insurance and driving mileages. The results of the paper had im- portant theoretical significance and practical value for driving mileages to be introduced into the GLM pricing system in China＇s vehicle insurance, and providing a reference for solving the transportation, energy and environmental problems in China.

关 键 词：广义线性模型 行驶里程数 车辆保险 单位根检验 协整检验 

分 类 号：F840.65[经济管理—保险]