FY-2E云迹风资料的高度调整对“灿都”(1003)台风路径数值预报影响的研究  

A STUDY ON THE APPLICATION OF FY-2E CLOUD DRIFT WIND HEIGHT REASSIGNMENT IN NUMERICAL FORECAST OF TYPHOON CHANTHU(1003) TRACK

作　　者：李昊睿[1] 丁伟钰[1] 薛纪善[1,2] 陈子通[1] 高郁东[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局广州热带海洋气象研究所,广东广州510080 [2]中国气象科学研究院,北京100081

出　　处：《热带气象学报》2012年第3期348-356,共9页Journal of Tropical Meteorology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41075083;41075040);公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY200906002);广东省气象局气象科技计划项目(201006);公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201006001;GYHY201006016);中国气象局项目(CMAGJ2011M36);中国气象局气象关键技术集成与应用项目(CMAGJ2012M36)共同资助

摘　　要：首先分析了FY-2E云迹风资料在不同高度上的分布,并利用背景场信息对云迹风资料的高度进行整体调整,然后进行数值对比试验,即将高度调整前和高度调整后的云迹风资料分别同化到GRAPES-3DVAR系统中,比较分析同化这两种资料对2010年7月21日0000 UTC—23日0000 UTC的台风路径预报的影响。结果表明,在垂直方向上,500 hPa以上才有云迹风资料,大约在300 hPa的资料最多;文中提出的重定高方法能有效地重新调整云迹风资料的高度,调整后的云迹风分布没有明显的矛盾,分布合理;同化重定高后的云迹风资料后,尤其是水汽通道的云迹风资料,能合理地对初始风场进行调整,使"灿都"台风周围的引导气流有利于其向实测路径靠近,进而有效改进台风路径预报。In this paper, we first analyzed cloud drift wind （CDW） data distribution in the vertical direction, then reassigned the height of every CDW in the research domain in terms of background information, and finally, conducted contrast numerical experiments of assimilating the CDW data before and after reassignment to examine the impacts on the forecast of typhoon track for typhoon Chanthu（1003） from 0000 UTC 21 July to 0000 UTC 23 July, 2010. The analysis results of the CDW data indicate that the number of CDWs is mainly distributed in the mid-upper troposphere above 500 hPa, with the maximum number at about 300hPa. The height reassigning method mentioned in this paper may update the height effectively, and the CDW data are distributed reasonably and no obvious contradiction occurs in the horizontal direction after height reassignment. After assimilating the height-reassigned CDW data, especially the water vapor CDW data, the initial wind field around typhoon Chanthu（1003） became more reasonable, and then the steering current leading typhoon Chanthu（1003） to move to the correct location became stronger. As a result, the numerical track predictions can be improved.

关 键 词：高度指定 云迹风 变分同化 台风路径 GRAPES 

分 类 号：P456.7[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]