鸭绿江感潮河段洪水预报模型的修正  

Flood Forecasting Model Correction in Tidal Reach of Yalu River

作　　者：张青山 刘智力 鲍志伟 吴慧秀[2] 杜中[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]辽宁省水文水资源勘测局丹东分局,辽宁丹东118001 [2]河海大学,江苏南京210098

出　　处：《辽东学院学报（自然科学版）》2012年第2期94-97,共4页Journal of Eastern Liaoning University:Natural Science Edition

基　　金：丹东市科技局重点项目(2011720)

摘　　要：鸭绿江感潮河段47 km,现有洪水预报模型在大潮预报时有明显的缺陷,问题的主要原因是没有明确体现洪峰到达时间与潮汐两高两低涨落时间的叠加。为此,对高低潮的影响以3 h为一段进行时间离散化处理,确定8个时段内的潮位值,作为附表在模型中进行应用,相对定量地确定了模型L3与L4线间的预报值幅度选择,实例应用预报精度提高到允许误差的10%,预测准确。There is 47km - long tidal reach in the Yalu River. The present flood forecasting model is obviously imperfect in forecasting big tide. The main reason of the problem is that it does not clearly reflect the superposition of the reaching time of flood peak and the time of two high and two low of tidal fluctuation. To revise it, the effect of high and low tides is processed discretely at a 3 h interval. The tide levels in eight intervals are obtained and ap- plied in the model, by which the amplitude between lines L3 and L4 is quantitatively determined. The application results show that prediction accuracy is improved to 10% of the allowable error.

关 键 词：感潮河段 洪水预报 潮水位 鸭绿江 

分 类 号：P328.1[天文地球—地球物理学]