宁波市耕地占补时空演变研究  

Examining temporal and spatial evolution for arable land occupied and compensated in Ningbo

作　　者：赵志刚[1,2] 梁栋栋[1,3] 李霖[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学资源与环境科学学院,武汉430079 [2]武汉大学地理信息系统教育部重点实验室,武汉430079 [3]安徽师范大学国土资源与旅游学院,安徽芜湖241009

出　　处：《华中师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2012年第3期368-372,378,共6页Journal of Central China Normal University：Natural Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(40771059);教育部人文社科基金项目(11YJA760041)

摘　　要：建设占用耕地,后备资源补充的模式是被占用耕地得到补偿的一种有效方式,使用logistic回归模型和二分类因变量的多元化分析方法对此模式在宁波市的时空演变进行研究,模拟了建设用地、耕地和后备资源时空演变的关系,预测了2011年以及未来10a即2021年建设占用耕地和后备资源补充耕地的趋势,发现2021年以后建设用地扩展在南部多丘陵地区有增多的趋势,占用耕地数量相对减少,但后备资源到2021年已无地可补,最后通过分析预测结果,提出了参考应对策略.The model that farmland used for construction,back-up resources to supplement is an effective way of compensation for occupied farmland.For this model,the use of logistic regression model and the two categories dependent variable analysis to study the temporal and spatial evolution in Ningbo city,to simulate space-time evolution of the relationship between the construction land,cultivated land and reserve resources,predicts the trend that construction occupying arable land and land reserving resource supplementing arable land in 2011,and the next 10 years ie 2021.Then,the paper finds the increase of expansion of construction land in the southern hilly areas of Ningbo and the relative reduction in the number of occupied arable land,but simultaneously finds the land reserving resource will have not enough land to supplement occupied-arable land.Lastly,the paper analyses the predicted result,gets the conclusion and propose countermeasures.

关 键 词：LOGISTIC回归模型 时空模拟 耕地占补平衡 

分 类 号：F301[经济管理—产业经济]