珠江流域干旱事件的多变量区域分析及区域分布特征  

Regionalization and Changing Properties of Drought Events along the Pearl River Basin

作　　者：肖名忠[1] 张强[2] 陈晓宏[3] 

机构地区：[1]中山大学水资源与环境系,广东广州510275 [2]中山大学华南地区水循环与水安全广东省普通高校重点实验室,广东广州510275 [3]中山大学广东省城市化与地理环境空间模拟重点实验室,广东广州510275

出　　处：《灾害学》2012年第3期12-18,共7页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41071020;50839005);新世纪优秀人才支持计划;广东省科技厅对外合作项目(2010B050800001);中山大学理工科青年教师重点培育计划项目(2009-37000-1132381)

摘　　要：区域干旱特征分析会为短期和长期的水资源管理提供关键的信息,因而对珠江流域进行区域干旱特征分析,建立了干旱严重程度-面积-频率曲线(Severity-Area-Frequency,SAF)。传统的区域性分析都是单变量的,而水文事件往往具有多个属性,为此采用Chebana等提出的多变量的L-moment均一性检验方法对流域进行均一性检验。研究发现珠江流域可分为4个均一性区域,对各均一性区域进行干旱严重程度-面积-频率分析的基础上,发现珠江流域在发生严重干旱时经常是全流域的,这对整个珠江流域的水资源管理造成很大压力。同时珠江三角洲所在的区域干旱风险相对其他区域更高,珠三角地区城市密集,人口众多,高风险的干旱无疑会对该地区的发展造成重大影响,需引起重视。Information on regional drought characteristics provides critical information for short and long-term water resource management. The regional drought characteristics for the Pearl River Basin are analyzed in this paper and severity-area-frequency curves are constructed. The traditional regional analysis all is single variable. But hydrological events often have multiple attributes. So we select Chebana＇s （2007） multivariate L-moments homogeneity test to analyze the Pearl River Basin. Result indicates that the Pearl River Basin can be categorized into four homogeneous regions. And severity-area-frequency analysis for the homogeneous region shows that when there is a severe drought, it usually occurs over the whole Pearl River Basin. So it is more stressful for the water resource management in the Pearl River Basin. Meanwhile, the Pearl River delta is at a higher risk of drought than that of other regions. As the Pearl River delta is one of the most developed regions in China. Dense cities, a large population and high risk of drought of the Pearl River Delta region will no doubt have a significant impact on the development of the region and attract more attention.

关 键 词：区域干旱特征 多变量区域分析 珠江流域 气象干旱 

分 类 号：P468.024[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]