中国大陆强震月季预测三步法和2010年实际预测检查  

Three-step method of microseism season prediction in China and the actual prediction check in 2010

作　　者：汤懋苍[1] 廖留峰[1,2] 郭维栋[3] 梅秀苹[4] 高晓清[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院寒旱区陆面过程与气候变化重点实验室,中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所,兰州730000 [2]中国科学院研究生院,北京100049 [3]南京大学大气科学学院,南京210093 [4]中国地震局兰州地震研究所,兰州730000

出　　处：《地球物理学进展》2012年第3期903-907,共5页Progress in Geophysics

基　　金：国家973项目(编号:2008CB425704);国家自然科学基金面上项目(40975049)共同资助

摘　　要：本文提出了强震成因的外核对流上升体顶托说,根据强震前时纬残差的大振幅摆动的观测结果,在一些假定之下,可估算得到外核上升流的速度可达到100 m/s,比板块运动要快8个量级,它可能是整个地球内部最快的一种运动,是震、旱、涝等天灾的肇因.强震三要素预测的先后顺序是:震级、震中、和发生月季.2010年两次强震预测的三要素有1～2项预测准确,看来此强震预测三步法可以继续试验.This article shows that the genesis of the strong earthquake is the outer core convective fluid uprising the Crust-Mantle layer, According to the large amplitude oscillation observation results of time and latitude residuals, the speed of the outer core convective upwelling could be estimated up to 10 °m / s in some hypothetical, which may be is one of the fastest movement within the earth, 8 orders of magnitude faster than the plate movement. So it is the causes of the earthquake, drought, floods and other natural disasters. Sequence of three elements predict are： magnitude, epicenter, and the season of earthquake occurrence. But we need to find another method if want to make short-term prediction. According two earthquake predict in 2010, there always have 1 or 2 projections of the three elements are correct, it seems that this three-step method of earthquake prediction can be continued.

关 键 词：强震月季预测 三步法 结果检查 

分 类 号：P315[天文地球—地震学]