黄河源区未来气候变化情景预测  

Generation Method of Climate Scene Based in the Headwater Regions of the Yellow River

作　　者：王金花[1] 刘吉峰[2] 张荣刚[2] 

机构地区：[1]黄河水利科学研究院,河南郑州450003 [2]黄河水利委员会水文局,河南郑州450004

出　　处：《人民黄河》2012年第6期35-37,共3页Yellow River

基　　金：中国水利水电科学研究院开放基金资助项目(IWHRKF200816);国家"973"计划项目(2011CB403303);中央级公益性科研院所基本业务基金资助项目(HKY-JBYW-2011-15);国家自然科学基金资助项目(40901095)

摘　　要：在经验正交函数展开的基础上,通过对主分量和大尺度预报因子进行最优回归,确定了流域降尺度统计模式。基于该模式对黄河源区2011—2040年中高排放情景、全球人口不断增加及中低排放情景、全球人口增长较少两种气候情景进行了分析。结果表明:黄河源区未来气温将明显升高,降水量略有增大,水资源压力将趋于增大。The downscaling statistical model of watershed was defined based on the empirical orthogonal function by regression analysis between the principal component and the large scale forecast factors. Two kinds of climate scenarios in the headwater regions of the Yellow River from 2011 to 2040, which including the high emission scenarios, the global population increasing ceaseless and the low emission scenarios, the global population growing less, were analyzed based on the downscaling statistical model. The results show that the temperature in the future will be increased signifi- cantly in the headwater regions of the Yellow River. At the same time, the precipitation in the future will be increased slightly. In general, the con- tradiction of water resources between supply and demand will be more obviously in the headwater regions of the Yellow River.

关 键 词：统计降尺度 气候情景 气候变化 黄河源区 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] TV882.1[水利工程—水利水电工程]