基于层次分析法的安全评价对经济贡献率的测算研究  

Study on economic contribution rate of safety evaluation based on AHP

作　　者：倪小芬[1] 孟祥睿[1] 魏新利[1] 边会婷[1] 

机构地区：[1]郑州大学化工与能源学院,郑州450001

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2012年第3期212-215,共4页Journal of Safety and Environment

摘　　要：影响安全评价绩效的因素有很多,采用层次分析方法和问卷调查形式,对评价对象层次结构化,计算出安全评价在技术进步中的权重为0.086 5。以安全评价的经济贡献率为评价其绩效的指标,结合索洛增长模型在技术进步对经济增长的贡献率测算中的应用,以及考虑安全评价效果影响系数μ,最终测算出安全评价对经济增长的贡献率为1.58%。与安全评价的投入相比,安全评价具有良好的经济效益,同时安全评价还带来可观的社会效益。This paper is intended to present an effective method in helping to quantitatively evaluate the performance of the safety assessment,which is affected by various factors.The paper is also attempting to introduce a systematic analysis of economic and non-economic benefits of safety assessment by means of an Analytic Hierarchy Process（AHP） and questionnaire survey.The technical progress we have adopted is divided into four elements by hierarchically structuralizing assessment objects,that is,the new processes and methods,new facilities,management level and efficient allocation of resources.And subsequently,we have adopted safety elements in new processes and methods,new facilities and safety management level as schemes.Based on the above methods and judgment matrix obtained from the questionnaire survey,we can work out the weight of safety assessment in the safety technical progress at about 0.218 4,which is accounted for 0.086 5 in technical progress.Based on the above calculation,we have also worked out the contribution rate of safety assessment on the economic growth as an index,with the contribution rate of technical progress on economic growth being 25.68%,which is gained from the data published in ＇China Statistical Yearbook＇ with Solow＇s Growth Model.Based on above data,it can be deduced that the contribution rate of safety assessment on economic growth should be preliminary 2.22%.Due to the actual situation,this paper has found the influence factors should account for the safety assessment effect.And then we have obtained through the questionnaire survey the influence coefficients μ into the system,which is equal to 0.6931.Eventually,the contribution rate of safety assessment on economic growth is accounted for 1.58%.This number,though very small,as compared with the investment of safety assessment,can prove that the safety assessment has a good economic efficiency and enjoy considerable social benefits.What is more,the safety assessment proves to be a low-input but high-yield working system,thus

关 键 词：安全经济学 层次分析法 安全评价 经济贡献率 索洛增长模型 绩效 

分 类 号：X915.4[环境科学与工程—安全科学]