上海合作组织国际连接模型的基本构造及其经济模拟——以新疆为主  

The Basic Framework and Economic Simulation of Shanghai Cooperation Organization International Connection Models——Based on Xinjiang

作　　者：雷合来提.马合木提 古海尔.乃孜尔 

机构地区：[1]新疆财经大学,新疆乌鲁木齐830012

出　　处：《新疆财经》2012年第3期69-74,共6页Finance & Economics of Xinjiang

基　　金：新疆维吾尔自治区高校科研计划项目"上海合作组织框架下区域经济计量模型研究"(XJEDU2009S84);国家自然科学基金项目"以新疆为主上海合作组织国际连接计量经济模型的实证研究"(71063019)

摘　　要：本文以凯恩斯需求理论为指导,建立上海合作组织各成员国、观察员国以及新疆和内地封闭式宏观经济模型,再以"贸易连接方式"将各宏观经济主体连为一体,建立上合组织国际连接计量经济模型,并利用该模型对各类宏观经济政策(包括财政政策、西部大开发政策、经济援助政策)的经济效果进行实证研究。通过对比分析得知,中国、哈萨克斯坦和俄罗斯的财政政策均对新疆产生较大的正面影响,而且这些财政政策对产业发展程度较高的国家和地区更具有经济意义。与此同时,任何一种经济援助政策最终均演变为SCO整体的援助政策。Taking Keynes Demand Theory as the guide, the closed macroeconomic model of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Member States, observers, Xinjiang and the mainland is established, and then by ＂trade connection mode＂, each macro - scopi- cal economic main body are connected into integration, and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization international connection of e- conometric models is established. Using the model, we can study economic empirical effect about all kinds of macro - scopical e- conomic policy （including fiscal policy, western development policy and economic aid policy）. Through the comparative analy- sis, China's Mainland, Kazakhstan and Russia＇s fiscal policy produce a greater positive impact on Xinjiang. The aid policy to the development of industry of higher degree of countries and regions has more economic significance than the industrial development level in backward countries. Any kind of economic aid policies were ultimately evolved into SCO overall aid policy.

关 键 词：上海合作组织(SCO) 宏观经济计量模型 国际连接模型 经济模拟 

分 类 号：F114.46[经济管理—国际贸易] F224[经济管理—世界经济]