我国原油进口量与国际原油价格及GDP的实证关系研究  

Research on Relationship between China's Crude Oil Importing and the International Oil Prices and GDP

作　　者：张传平[1] 牛晓良[1] 谢晓慧[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国石油大学(华东)经济管理学院,青岛266555

出　　处：《科学技术与工程》2012年第18期4579-4583,共5页Science Technology and Engineering

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(R090629B)资助

摘　　要：近年来,我国原油进口量稳步提升,原油进口已经成为我国经济可持续发展的重要影响因素。对我国原油进口量与国际原油价格、我国GDP以及三大产业之间的关系进行了深入分析。结果表明,我国原油进口量与我国GDP及三大产业之间存在长期协整关系,而国际原油价格对我国原油进口量影响甚微。通过建立原油进口量以及三大产业之间的VAR模型发现,我国原油进口量对三大产业的影响程度依次为第三产业、第一产业、第二产业。最后根据研究结果,对我国原油战略提出了建议。In recent years,China＇s crude oil importing has increased steadily.Oil importing has became an important factor for sustainable development of economic.A depth analysis of the relationship is made of between China＇s crude oil importing and the international oil prices,China＇s GDP,and the three major industries.The result shows that it exists a co-integrating relationship between crude oil importing and GDP and the three major industries.Besides,international oil price has little impact on China＇s crude oil importing.A VAR model for crude oil importing and the three major industries is build.The result shows that oil importing has the most serious impact on the tertiary industry,followed by primary industry,and at last,the Second Industry.Based on the results of research,some suggestions are raised for China＇s energy strategy.

关 键 词：原油进口量 国际原油价格 GDP 三大产业 VAR 脉冲响应函数 差分分解 

分 类 号：F740.3[经济管理—国际贸易]