大风浪条件下渤海海区重点船舶风险评估模型  

The Risk Evaluation Model of Major Vessels in Bohai Area in the Condition of Rough Seas

作　　者：吴金龙[1] 刘大刚[2] 范中洲[2] 刘涛[2] 陈杰伟[2] 罗红红[3] 

机构地区：[1]天津海运职业学院,天津300350 [2]大连海事大学航海学院,辽宁大连116026 [3]中国科学技术信息研究所,北京100038

出　　处：《中国航海》2012年第2期89-92,共4页Navigation of China

基　　金：国家公益性行业科研专项项目(GYHY201006034)

摘　　要：通过对近年来渤海海区因大风浪引起的船舶重大事故进行统计分析,发现渤海海区近年来发生重大事故的船舶主要集中为5 000t以下的散货船,由此提出渤海海区大风浪条件下应重点关注的船舶类型。根据风险分析理论和方法,建立了渤海海区重点船舶在大风浪条件下的风险等级,并根据专家问卷调查的形式得出相应的风险等级标准。据此,建立了使用模糊评判方法的大风浪条件下渤海海区应重点关注船舶的风险评估模型。该模型可为进一步研发基于电子海图平台的可视化船舶风险控制和管理辅助决策系统提供重要的理论依据。Through a statistical analysis of the major accidents happened in Bohai Sea under rough seas in recent years, it is found that the wrecked ships are mainly bulk carriers under 5000t. Therefore, the types of vessels which should be paid more attention to under rough seas are put forth. The risk levels for the major vessels in Bohai Sea under rough seas is established based on risk analysis, and the risk level standard is worked out through question- naire survey on experts. A risk evaluation model of the major vessel types under rough seas in Bohai Sea is set up. The model can be used as a theoretical base for developing visualized ECDIS-based aid decision making system for ship risk control and management.

关 键 词：水路运输 气象安全保障 船舶安全 大风浪区 风险评估模型 

分 类 号：U676.1[交通运输工程—船舶及航道工程]