区域农业干旱脆弱性评价及影响因素识别——以河南、河北省为例  

ASSESSMENT OF REGIONAL AGRICULTURAL DROUGHT VULNERABILITY AND IDENTIFICATION OF MAIN INFLUENCING FACTORS: A CASE STUDY IN HEBEI AND HENAN PROVINCE

作　　者：赵菲菲[1] 何斌[2,1] 李小涵[1] 王前锋[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学减灾与应急管理研究院,北京100875 [2]北京师范大学全球变化与地球系统科学研究院,北京100875

出　　处：《北京师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2012年第3期282-286,共5页Journal of Beijing Normal University(Natural Science)

基　　金：北京师范大学自主科研基金资助项目(105563GK);国家重点基础研究发展计划资助项目(2012CB955701);国家自然科学基金资助项目(NSFC 40801216);教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划资助项目(NCET-08-0057)

摘　　要：利用河南、河北省1992—2007年市级尺度的玉米、小麦总产量数据、社会经济统计数据及气象站点降雨量数据,通过建立粮食减产量与农业干旱之间的定量关系,对各地区的主要粮食作物(小麦、玉米)生产的农业干旱脆弱性进行了综合评价,并探讨了脆弱性的时空变化特征;同时,在脆弱性评价的基础上,分别提取了代表农业干旱"敏感"(轻度干旱发生时,产量损失重大的年份)和对农业干旱"适应"(发生严重的干旱,但产量损失较小的年份)的案例,识别了影响农业干旱脆弱性的关键因素.本文得出的一些结果可以为制定降低农业干旱脆弱性的策略提供科学依据.Reducing agricultural vulnerability can minimize effectively the impact of drought.Maize and wheat production data from 1992 to 2007,monthly rainfall data from Meteorological stations,and some socio-economic index were used for a comprehensive evaluation of drought vulnerability of agriculture in Henan and Hebei provinces by quantitative analysis of correlation between food production and agricultural drought.Temporal-spatial pattern of agricultural drought vulnerability was also investigated.Vulnerability assessment and comprehensive analysis of loss in grain production to drought were used to identify socio-economic factors of agricultural drought vulnerability.This work provides a rational basis for decision-makers to develop strategies for the reduction of agricultural drought vulnerability.

关 键 词：农业干旱脆弱性 适应 敏感 社会经济 

分 类 号：S423[农业科学—植物保护]