基于Markov的山西岔口小流域土地利用变化预测  

Prediction of the Land Use/Cover Change of Shanxi Cha-kou Small Watershed by Means of Markov Model

作　　者：刘慧璋[1] 郭青霞[2] 王曰鑫[2] 刘超[2] 徐丹丹[2] 芦三矿生 

机构地区：[1]山西农业大学文理学院,山西太谷030801 [2]山西农业大学资源环境学院,山西太谷030801

出　　处：《山西农业大学学报（自然科学版）》2012年第1期53-57,共5页Journal of Shanxi Agricultural University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41071345)

摘　　要：为了探究验证土地利用覆被变化是山西岔口小流域水土流失的主要风险源,以流域2008和2010两年的矢量化土地利用现状图为数据,提取分析土地覆被变化数据构建马尔科夫模型,利用转移概率矩阵对流域2020年的土地利用覆被变化做出了预测。结果表明,按照目前趋势发展,坡耕地和裸地面积会不断减少,到2020年分别减少至1348.81hm2和763.54hm2;乔木林和梯田的面积则会逐步增加到3985.74hm2和1339.65hm2。耕地改良和退耕还林还草工程将取得实质性成果,流域生态将得到逐步恢复,水土流失将有效减少。Based on the data of the vector maps of the current land use of Cha-kou small watershed in Shanxi in 2008 and 2010, the land cover change data was extracted and analysed to construct the Markov model. With the transition proba- bility matrix,we predicted the land use/cover change o[ Cha-kou small watershed in 2020. The results ind{cated that, according to the current development trend, the area of slope farmland and bare land would continue to reduce to 1348.81 hm2 and 763.54 hm2. The area of high forest and terraced fields would be gradually increased to 3985.74 hm2 and 1339.65 hm2. The projects of farmland improvement and returning the grain plots to forestry would make substan tial achievements. The ecological environment of the watershed would gradually get recovered and rebuilt, which would reduce soil and water loss.

关 键 词：岔口小流域 LUCC 马尔科夫模型 预测 

分 类 号：F301.2[经济管理—产业经济]