近30年甘肃省气温时空变异分析  

Analyses on Spatial-Temporal Differentiations of Air Temperature in Gansu Province during 1979-2008

作　　者：马中华[1] 张勃[1] 张建香[1] 王兴梅[1] 

机构地区：[1]西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院,甘肃兰州730070

出　　处：《高原气象》2012年第3期760-767,共8页Plateau Meteorology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(40961038);公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY200806021-07);中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目(KZCX2-YWQ10-4);生态经济学省级重点学科项目(95001-21)共同资助

摘　　要：基于ArcGIS Analyst平台,采用协同克里格(CoKriging)插值方法,对1979—2008年甘肃省旬平均气温进行了空间插值,得到1km×1km各旬的平均气温表面数据。第36旬气温插值结果的平均误差、均方根误差、平均标准差、标准化平均误差和均方根标准差的平均分别为-0.00046,1.998,1.809,0.0035和1.087℃。利用插值计算结果和气象站观测数据,分析了旬、月和年平均气温的时空变异特征。结果表明,空间上东南部地区的气温变异较小,其他地区的变异较大;时间上第23-24旬、第24-26旬、第25-27旬、第33-35旬和第34-36旬的平均气温呈平稳下降趋势,第4-6旬、第5-7旬、第6-8旬、第7-9旬和第8-10旬的平均气温呈平稳上升趋势,7月气温呈不显著下降趋势,3,5和10月的平均气温略呈上升趋势。1979—2008年甘肃省的年平均气温为8.05℃,3年滑动平均最低气温(1983—1985年)为7.13℃,最高气温(2005—2007年)为8.82℃,气温上升趋势较为明显。Based on the ArcGIS Analyst platform, the ten-day mean air temperature in Gansu Province during 1979-2008 is analyzed by the CoKriging method with spatial interpolation, and 1 km×1 km sur- face data of ten-day mean air temperature are obtained. The results show that the averages of mean error, root mean square error, mean standard deviation, standardized mean error and root mean square standard deviation are -0. 00046, 1. 998, 1. 809, 0. 0035 and 1. 087℃, respectively. According to the characteris- tic of spatial-temporal differentiations of ten-day, monthly and annual mean air temperatures, it is found that there is lesser differentiation in the Southeast, and larger in other region in space. The trend of ten- day mean air temperature has been steadily dropping in the periods of the 23th-24th, the 24th-26th, the 25th-27th, the 33th-35th and the 34th-36th, in contrast, it has a steadily decreasing trend in the peri- ods ofthe4th-6th, the5th-Tth, the6th-8th, theTth-9thandthe8th-10th. Moreover, the monthly mean air temperature appears slight descendent trend in July and slight ascendent trends in March, May and October. The annual mean air temperature in Gansu Province in 1979-2008 is 8.05℃. The minimun temperature of 3-year running mean in 1983-1985 is 7.13℃ and the maximum temperature, 8.82℃, which has obviously ascendent trend.

关 键 词：气温 时空变异 协同克里格法 ARCGIS 

分 类 号：P468-21[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]