用季节流行现象预测全国猩红热疫情  

Prediction on Epidemic of Scarlet Fever in China With Zeng-Ding Phenomenon

作　　者：李雷雷[1] 周蕾[1] 隋霞[2] 陆不来 金连梅[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国疾病预防控制中心,北京102206 [2]卫生部医院管理研究所 [3]苏州市疾控中心

出　　处：《预防医学情报杂志》2012年第6期441-443,共3页Journal of Preventive Medicine Information

摘　　要：目的运用疾病流行中的"Z-D现象"理论对全国猩红热疫情进行预测,为猩红热疫情暴发流行的控制工作提供理论依据。方法分析利用全国1987-2011年猩红热疫情资料,构建外推性预测模型,预测2012年猩红热趋势。结果结果表明,最佳截取点的月累计百分位数和流行年前兆升降比之间呈负相关(R=0.33,P=0.05),回顾性模型的预测结果与实际情况进行比较,符合率达到71%。验证性外推预测结果较好,提示2012年猩红热疫情呈下降趋势。结论根据本年度的猩红热发病数据,可以较好地预测猩红热下一流行年的流行趋势,为猩红热的预防控制提供理论支撑。Objective To forecast the epidemic situation of scarlet fever in China by using the theory of Zeng-Ding phenomenon,and provide evidence for the prevention and control of the scarlet fever outbreak.Methods The incidence data of scarlet fever from 1987-2011 in China were analyzed,with the extrapolation model constructed to predict the scarlet fever in 2012.Results Correlation analysis showed the coefficient was negative（R=0.33,P=0.05） between the monthly cumulative percentage and predictive ratio of increase to decrease in incidence rate at the best cut-off point.The model prediction was good,and the accordance rate was 71% by comparing with the actual line.It is propted that the epidemic of scarlet fever in 2012 would show a downward trend.Conclusions Based on Zeng-Ding phenomenon,the trend of next year could be predicted by using the incidence data of scarlet in the previous year to provide a theoretical evidence for prevention and control of scarlet fever.

关 键 词：猩红热 季节流行现象(Zeng-Ding) 预测 

分 类 号：R515.1[医药卫生—内科学]