新疆地区M≥7强震有序网络结构及其预测研究  

Ordered network structure of M≥7 strong earthquakes and its prediction in Xinjiang

作　　者：门可佩[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学数学与统计学院,南京210044

出　　处：《南京信息工程大学学报（自然科学版）》2012年第3期270-278,共9页Journal of Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology（Natural Science Edition）

摘　　要：自1800年以来,新疆及其邻区M≥7强震具有显著的可公度性和有序性,其主要有序值为30a×k(k=1,2,3)、11～12a、41～43a与18～19a等.根据翁文波信息预测理论和复杂网络技术,努力探索具有中国特色自主创新的强震预测方法,构建新疆地区M≥7强震信息有序网络结构,充分揭示了新疆地区近200a来M≥7强震链的活动规律,并据此较为成功地预测了2008年于田7.3级强震的发生.同时还提出新的预测意见:2014—2015年、2019—2020年以及2026年前后新疆地区仍有可能发生M≥7强震.研究结果表明强震是可以预测的.该方法对于强震的中长期跨越式预测具有独特效果.Abstract Since 1800 ,M≥7 strong earthquakes have showed an obvious commensurability and orderliness in Xin- jiang and its neighbourhood region. The main orderly values are 30 a x k（k = 1,2,3 ） , 11-12 a,41-43 a and 18- 19 a. According to the information forecasting theory of WENG Wenbo and complex network technology, we try to explore the practical methods for M≥7 strong earthquake prediction with Chinese characteristics,and build the in- formational ordered network structure of M≥7 strong eatthquakes in Xinjiang. In this paper,the activity rhythm of M≥7 strong earthquakes in Xinjiang during the past 200 years is revealed fully by the network structure. Based on this, Yutian M7.3 strong earthquake is successfully predicted in 2008. At last, we present a new prediction opinion that the future M≥7 strong earthquakes will probably happen in 2014-2015,2019-2020 and 2026 in this region. The results show that strong earthquake can be predicted. This method produces satisfactory results for mid-and-long strong earthquake prediction.

关 键 词：新疆地区 M≥7强震链 信息有序网络结构 复杂网络 强震预测 

分 类 号：P315.75[天文地球—地震学]