基于Markov和CLUE-S模型的敦煌市土地利用/覆盖格局情景模拟  

Scenarios simulation of land use/cover pattern in Dunhuang City,Gansu Province of Northwest China based on Markov and CLUE-S integrated model

作　　者：马利邦[1,2] 牛叔文[2,3] 杨丽娜[2] 

机构地区：[1]西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院,兰州730070 [2]兰州大学资源环境学院,兰州730000 [3]兰州大学西部环境教育部重点实验室,兰州730000

出　　处：《生态学杂志》2012年第7期1823-1831,共9页Chinese Journal of Ecology

基　　金：甘肃省发改委重大项目(GV2007-08)资助

摘　　要：建立Markov过程模型和CLUE-S模型的集成模型,选取海拔、坡度、到河流距离、到道路距离等13个驱动因子,基于敦煌市1996年的土地利用/覆盖变化(LUCC)数据,对2007年的土地利用/覆盖格局进行模拟,模拟效果较好。设置4种情景对敦煌市2018年土地利用/覆盖格局进行预测,揭示不同情景下的土地利用格局变化。情景模拟结果表明:不论是自然发展型情景还是单纯考虑生态保护和经济发展的情景,都仅是单一需求的考虑,不能实现区域又快又好的发展,是不可持续的发展模式。综合发展型情景弥补了上述情景的缺点,比较全面地考虑了生态环境恢复、经济发展等的需要,是一种比较理想的发展模式。A Markov and CLUE-S integrated model was established to simulate the land use/cover pattern in Dunhuang City in 2007,based on the land use/cover change data in 1996 and selecting altitude,slope,distance to river,and distance to road,etc.as the driving factors.The simulation results had a high reliability,and matched well with the actual situation.In order to reveal the future changes of the land use pattern in the City,four scenarios were set to predict the land use/cover pattern in the City in 2018.The simulation results showed that whether the scenarios were of natural development-oriented or only considering ecological protection and economic development,they were only single demand consideration and could not realize sound and rapid development,being of unsustainable development model.However,the comprehensive development-oriented scenario overcame the shortcomings of the above scenarios,and would be an ideal model of region development,which comprehensively considered the needs of ecological environment restoration and economic development.

关 键 词：土地利用/覆盖格局 情景模拟 集成模型 敦煌市 

分 类 号：O211.62[理学—概率论与数理统计] F301.24[理学—数学]