基于Lotka-Voterra模型的光伏产业生态创新系统演化路径的仿生学研究  

The Bionics Research of Evolutionary Path of Photovoltaic Industry's Innovation Ecosystem Based on Lotka Volterra Model

作　　者：陈瑜[1] 谢富纪[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海交通大学安泰经济与管理学院,上海200052

出　　处：《研究与发展管理》2012年第3期74-84,共11页R&D Management

基　　金：国家社会科学基金资助项目"创新型国家建设的R&D资源配置研究"(08BJY033)

摘　　要：以可再生能源的典型代表光伏产业发展为例,借鉴产业生态学的理念,通过引入生态学中的Lotka-Volterra竞争捕食者模型,模拟研究了中国光伏产业生态系统的演化路径.首先详细阐述了光伏产业生态创新系统中生物成分与非生物成分之间的相互关系,并借鉴自然生态系统中复制、竞合与重组机制,分析了这三种机制对光伏产业生态创新系统的影响.然后,根据Lotka-Volterra模型的推理,得到系统的稳态平衡点.研究表明,中国光伏产业生态系统的演化主要有两个方向:后向捕食战略和前向捕食战略.在此基础上,提出光伏产业发展应改变原来仅考虑自身发展的单向思维模式,而转向各物种协调平衡发展的系统思维模式.Taking solar photovoltaic as example, it studies the evolutionary path of Chinese photovoltaic industry by u- sing industrial ecology theory for reference, and introducing Lotka - Voherra model. Firstly, it elaborates the relation- ship between biological and non-biological components in photovohaic industry＇s innovation ecosystem, and an.alyzes im- pact of replication, competition and restructuring mechanism on photovoltaic industry＇s innovation ecosystem. Then ac- cording to stable equilibrium of Lotka - Volterra model, the evolutionary path of photovoltaic intusty＇s ecosystem has two main directions, namely, backward predation strategy and forward predation strategy. It concludes that the development of photovoltaic industry should change one-way thinking mode to systematic thinking.

关 键 词：Lotka—Volterra模型 光伏产业 生态创新系统 演化路径 

分 类 号：C939[经济管理—管理学]