辽西北地区农业干旱灾害风险评价与风险区划研究  

A Study on Risk Assessment and Risk Regionalization of Agricultural Drought Disaster in Northwestern Regions of Liaoning Province

作　　者：张继权[1] 严登华[2] 王春乙[3] 刘兴朋[1] 佟志军[1] 

机构地区：[1]东北师范大学城市与环境科学学院自然灾害研究所,长春130024 [2]中国水利水电科学研究院,北京100038 [3]海南省气象局,海口570203

出　　处：《防灾减灾工程学报》2012年第3期300-306,共7页Journal of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Engineering

基　　金："十二五"农村领域国家科技计划课题(2011BAD32B00-04);全球变化研究国家重大科学研究计划课题(2010CB951102);国家自然科学基金项目(41071326);国家自然科学基金项目(40871236)资助;"十一五"国家科技支撑计划课题(2007BAC29B04)

摘　　要：以辽西北29个农业县(市、区)为研究区域,选取辽西北最主要的玉米作物作为研究对象,从造成农业干旱灾害的致灾因子危险性、承灾体暴露性、脆弱性和抗旱减灾能力4个方面着手,利用自然灾害风险指数法、加权综合评价法和层次分析法,建立了农业干旱灾害风险指数(ADRI),用以表征农业干旱灾害风险程度;借助GIS技术,绘制辽西北农业干旱灾害风险评价区划图,将风险评价区划图与2006年辽西北受干旱影响粮食减产系数区划图对比,发现两者可以较好的匹配。研究结果可为当地农业干旱灾害预警、保险,以及有关部门的旱灾管理、减灾决策制定提供理论依据和指导。The regions researched in this paper include 29 counties in the northwest regions of Liaoning Province,and the drought disaster index system and static model of agricultural drought disaster risk assessment are established,which integrate hazard,exposure,vulnerability and emergency response and recovery capability. The agricultural drought disaster is set on the theoretical support of Natural Disaster Risk Index method,Weighted Comprehensive Analysis（WCA） and the analytic hierarchy process（AHP）.The agricultural drought disaster risk index（ADRI） is assessed by the risk assessment model.The risk map of agricultural drought disaster is drawn based on GIS,the study is divided into four types： heavy,middle,low and light.This study can be expected to provide reference and guidance for agricultural drought disaster insurance,agricultural drought disaster management and developing strategies to mitigate agricultural drought hazard and reduce the losses from it.

关 键 词：农业干旱灾害 风险评价 风险指数 辽西北 

分 类 号：O353.1[理学—流体力学] TU81[理学—力学]