树轮记录的腾格里沙漠东缘1775—2005年降水变化  

Precipitation Variation from 1775 to 2005 at the Eastern Margin of Tengger Desert,China Inferred from Tree-ring

作　　者：范子昂[1] 魏文寿[1] 陈峰[1] 袁玉江[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所中国气象局树木年轮理化研究重点实验室/新疆维吾尔自治区树木年轮生态重点实验室,新疆乌鲁木齐830002

出　　处：《中国沙漠》2012年第4期996-1002,共7页Journal of Desert Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41071072);科技部公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201106013;GYHY200806011);国家重点基础研究发展计划"973"项目(2010CB951001);中央级科研院所基本科研业务费项目(IDM201105);沙漠气象科学研究基金项目(Sqj2011005)共同资助

摘　　要：利用采自腾格里沙漠东缘的贺兰山油松树轮样本,建立树轮宽度年表。通过相关普查发现,贺兰山油松树轮宽度差值年表与腾格里沙漠东缘当年5月至7月的降水存在显著的正相关,相关系数为0.606(P<0.001)。利用贺兰山北部的树轮宽度差值年表,可较好地重建腾格里沙漠东缘近231a来当年5月至7月的降水变化,交叉检验表明,降水重建结果稳定可靠。通过与腾格里沙漠南缘地区树轮降水重建序列对比分析,发现腾格里沙漠边缘区的树轮重建降水的干湿阶段变化具有良好的同步性,并对西北地区极端干旱历史事件有良好响应。Tree-ring chronologies were established according to samples from Helan Mountains.Single correlation analysis indicated that the correlation was significant between the tree-ring chronologies and the May-July precipitation in the eastern margin of the Tengger Desert during 1957-2005,and the correlation coefficient was 0.606（P0.001）.Based on the tree-ring chronologies in northern Helan Mountains,May July precipitation in the eastern fringe of the Tengger Desert during 1775-2005 was reconstructed.Leave-one-out cross-validation for the reconstructed precipitation sequence during 1957-2005 showed a high credibility level.The reconstructed precipitation sequence in the eastern margin of the Tengger Desert during these 231 years had significant period cycles of 12.5-year（95%）,8.6-year（90%）,7.0-year（90%）,4.7-year（95%）,4.2-year（90%）,3.3-year（95%）,2.6-year（99%）,and 2.0-year（95%）.Compared to precipitation reconstruction in the southern margin of the Tengger Desert and historical archives,the results reveal synchronized climatic extremes and change over most of the Tengger Desert well responding to extreme arid events in Northwest China.

关 键 词：腾格里沙漠 树轮年表 降水重建 

分 类 号：P46[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]